{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e68bffb1-5bb0-4cae-af97-6e93ed30f4d8", "symbol": "IVN", "name": "Ivanhoe Mines Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.935, "architecture_energy": 38.146, "architecture_maturity": 56.331, "architecture_confidence": 93.946, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.72, "rotation_up": 23.75, "upward_expansion": 6.64, "deceleration": 54.9, "rotation_down": 52.19, "downward_expansion": 77.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.676, 10.746545, 11.062095, 11.506344 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.53, "trend_reference": 12.535333, "distance_from_trend": -0.0802, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.407885, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.199744, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.194392, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.314099, "excess_performance": -0.43452, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0802, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084076, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.199744, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013749, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.221944, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02375, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.314099, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.549665, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19417000, "relative_activity": 1.039066, "balance": 0.549665, "dry_up": 1.214373, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091133, "annualized_volatility": 0.532673, "from_high_reference": -0.433137, "from_low_reference": 0.220106 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.535333, "fair_value_reference": 14.407885, "structural_low": 9.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.022779, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.010938, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.279883, "worst_return": -0.284576, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.005877, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002743, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.345506, "worst_return": -0.214832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.441429, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.327029, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.906367, "worst_return": -0.330194, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070438, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047481, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.310771, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046129, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.152338, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.117527, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.259869, "energy": 74.584637, "activity_lines": [ 10.526667, 10.947455, 11.223381, 11.921312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.61, "volume": 23930700, "typical_volume": 18033510.0, "trend": 12.891, "fair_value": 14.437692, "relative_strength": -27.080431, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.432263, "energy": 60.337065, "activity_lines": [ 10.475333, 10.834182, 11.145667, 11.763312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.07, "volume": 31837000, "typical_volume": 18670160.0, "trend": 12.692, "fair_value": 14.417692, "relative_strength": -30.157229, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.564595, "energy": 57.735731, "activity_lines": [ 10.312667, 10.643636, 11.028714, 11.581312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.53, "volume": 19417000, "typical_volume": 18686970.0, "trend": 12.535333, "fair_value": 14.407885, "relative_strength": -22.194392, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.93519, "energy": 38.14579, "activity_lines": [ 10.676, 10.746545, 11.062095, 11.506344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }