{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e68d99d0-95ee-453a-9c3c-b2c58f8f4722", "symbol": "4141", "name": "Al-Omran Industrial Trading Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.767, "architecture_energy": 51.392, "architecture_maturity": 6.934, "architecture_confidence": 82.504, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.09, "rotation_up": 14.04, "upward_expansion": 11.95, "deceleration": 37.86, "rotation_down": 61.26, "downward_expansion": 80.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.378667, 20.760909, 20.877524, 21.107892 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20.4, "trend_reference": 21.741, "distance_from_trend": -0.061681, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.263003, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.386706, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.952721, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.167347, "excess_performance": -0.135518, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061681, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081431, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.386706, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003231, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.149527, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026066, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.167347, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.087896, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 168705, "relative_activity": 0.57143, "balance": 2.087896, "dry_up": 0.494517, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051018, "annualized_volatility": 0.244141, "from_high_reference": -0.394659, "from_low_reference": 0.054809 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.741, "fair_value_reference": 33.263003, "structural_low": 19.34, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.017276, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.005841, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.135897, "worst_return": -0.145833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.00076, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.015896, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.137416, "worst_return": -0.241142, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.10582, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.122321, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.006729, "worst_return": -0.236047, "sufficient": true }, 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"trend": 22.384, "fair_value": 33.934659, "relative_strength": -12.467457, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.980783, "energy": 19.871598, "activity_lines": [ 21.550667, 21.138727, 21.169619, 21.565527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.709999, "volume": 158056, "typical_volume": 289113.15, "trend": 22.224333, "fair_value": 33.76142, "relative_strength": -13.97086, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.453349, "energy": 23.385984, "activity_lines": [ 21.357333, 21.090909, 21.125238, 21.457527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.48, "volume": 147954, "typical_volume": 289478.75, "trend": 22.061, "fair_value": 33.588213, "relative_strength": -15.130543, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.033341, "energy": 19.912081, "activity_lines": [ 21.067333, 21.017454, 21.061667, 21.344989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.870001, "volume": 109276, "typical_volume": 288178.15, "trend": 21.884, "fair_value": 33.422402, "relative_strength": -15.621022, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.792253, "energy": 44.543704, "activity_lines": [ 20.582, 20.837818, 20.942857, 21.203634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.4, "volume": 168705, "typical_volume": 295232.8, "trend": 21.741, "fair_value": 33.263003, "relative_strength": -14.952721, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.766924, "energy": 51.392348, "activity_lines": [ 20.378667, 20.760909, 20.877524, 21.107892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }