{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e68e5d30-f706-4833-b48d-119635848fa2", "symbol": "XLDX", "name": "Xtrackers LevDAX Daily Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 82.125, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.244, "architecture_energy": 65.023, "architecture_maturity": 35.243, "architecture_confidence": 84.722, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.42, "rotation_up": 61.4, "upward_expansion": 84.21, "deceleration": 49.35, "rotation_down": 18.51, "downward_expansion": 15.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 25250.333333, 24880.909091, 24426.071429, 24064.88172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 26730.0, "trend_reference": 23961.583333, "distance_from_trend": 0.115536, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18902.126277, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.414127, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.606984, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.080437, "excess_performance": 0.029201, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.115536, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009281, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.414127, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111646, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.02607, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105488, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080437, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.038513, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1576, "relative_activity": 0.653427, "balance": 1.038513, "dry_up": 0.61974, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042144, "annualized_volatility": 0.378438, "from_high_reference": -0.039481, "from_low_reference": 0.393349 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23961.583333, "fair_value_reference": 18902.126277, "structural_low": 19184.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.037633, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.010532, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.104317, "worst_return": -0.115303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.046029, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.02046, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.172055, "worst_return": -0.203175, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.138271, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.058772, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.344604, "worst_return": -0.198748, "sufficient": false }, { 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4198.35, "trend": 23937.0, "fair_value": 18580.020508, "relative_strength": -4.575202, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.868856, "energy": 29.76438, "activity_lines": [ 24570.666667, 24393.727273, 23824.571429, 23798.494624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23650.0, "volume": 2601, "typical_volume": 4113.35, "trend": 23915.75, "fair_value": 18651.103841, "relative_strength": -7.29811, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.101597, "energy": 15.160222, "activity_lines": [ 24312.0, 24298.5, 23848.785714, 23779.978495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24190.0, "volume": 1474, "typical_volume": 3035.1, "trend": 23911.333333, "fair_value": 18723.475636, "relative_strength": -6.04363, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.675763, "energy": 14.264545, "activity_lines": [ 24237.5, 24295.136364, 23936.369048, 23797.672043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25257.5, "volume": 328, "typical_volume": 2686.75, "trend": 23934.416667, "fair_value": 18807.357046, "relative_strength": -2.922322, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.756565, "energy": 20.328799, "activity_lines": [ 24546.333333, 24461.545455, 24118.916667, 23884.521505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26730.0, "volume": 1576, "typical_volume": 2411.9, "trend": 23961.583333, "fair_value": 18902.126277, "relative_strength": 2.606984, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.244486, "energy": 65.023195, "activity_lines": [ 25250.333333, 24880.909091, 24426.071429, 24064.88172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }