{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e68ebd5c-db70-40da-875f-a0d99575b23d",
    "symbol": "PARR",
    "name": "Par Pacific Holdings Inc",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 65.865,
    "architecture_energy": 79.46,
    "architecture_maturity": 19.008,
    "architecture_confidence": 82.17,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 18.77,
        "rotation_up": 78.89,
        "upward_expansion": 93.99,
        "deceleration": 41.86,
        "rotation_down": 8.31,
        "downward_expansion": 18.32
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        75.068,
        69.375636,
        64.867381,
        62.205355
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 66.29,
    "trend_reference": 57.019,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.162595,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 33.531474,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.976949,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 22.343011,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.530947,
    "excess_performance": 0.405322,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.162595,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.165008,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.976949,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.133011,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.22343,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.232916,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.530947,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.483429,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 7197100,
      "relative_activity": 1.26478,
      "balance": 1.483429,
      "dry_up": 0.96226,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.125729,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.649393,
      "from_high_reference": -0.238309,
      "from_low_reference": 1.446125
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 57.019,
      "fair_value_reference": 33.531474,
      "structural_low": 36.6,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 27,
        "median_return": -0.022537,
        "positive_rate": 0.407407,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.407407,
        "median_excess_return": -0.034022,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.53902,
        "worst_return": -0.196704,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.037161,
        "positive_rate": 0.545455,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.545455,
        "median_excess_return": -0.08592,
        "regime_survival": 0.454545,
        "best_return": 0.575814,
        "worst_return": -0.274485,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.069422,
        "positive_rate": 0.857143,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.857143,
        "median_excess_return": -0.014897,
        "regime_survival": 0.285714,
        "best_return": 1.032558,
        "worst_return": -0.399046,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.35593,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.329895,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 1.588837,
        "worst_return": -0.340897,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-02-16",
        "end": "2024-03-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.067052,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-03-22",
        "end": "2024-04-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.169187,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-05-03",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.06323,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.358504,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-02-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.065789,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.43215,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "return": 0.349302,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-09-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.085897,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-12-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": true
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      },
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        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "fair_value": 32.702051,
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        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 5936241.2,
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        "relative_strength": 54.065645,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
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        "typical_volume": 5798258.7,
        "trend": 56.048,
        "fair_value": 33.343846,
        "relative_strength": 66.284957,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 89.395175,
        "energy": 93.552768,
        "activity_lines": [
          77.234,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 66.29,
        "volume": 7197100,
        "typical_volume": 5690395.7,
        "trend": 57.019,
        "fair_value": 33.531474,
        "relative_strength": 22.343011,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.865286,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}