{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e697188f-abc1-4809-bcc9-b530bcfc80f4", "symbol": "603778", "name": "Guosheng Shian Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.179, "architecture_energy": 84.464, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.88, "rotation_up": 16.64, "upward_expansion": 21.34, "deceleration": 37.31, "rotation_down": 70.64, "downward_expansion": 97.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.610667, 10.766909, 14.900524, 16.902473 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 10.72, "trend_reference": 18.483667, "distance_from_trend": -0.420028, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.091987, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.511565, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.918587, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.168348, "excess_performance": -0.125144, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.420028, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027251, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.511565, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.730222, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199186, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.533365, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.168348, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.451575, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 372185860, "relative_activity": 1.147692, "balance": 0.451575, "dry_up": 1.031307, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.281788, "annualized_volatility": 1.141589, "from_high_reference": -0.68719, "from_low_reference": 2.318885 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.483667, "fair_value_reference": 7.091987, "structural_low": 7.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.016802, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.010612, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.839465, "worst_return": -0.195228, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.078076, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.076414, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 1.521277, "worst_return": -0.310195, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.118331, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.028447, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.031429, "worst_return": -0.40564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-14.235544, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.796386, "energy": 72.796605, "activity_lines": [ 12.551333, 15.019091, 18.997571, 19.405742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.85, "volume": 295476924, "typical_volume": 361705815.85, "trend": 19.058, "fair_value": 7.01641, "relative_strength": -29.199611, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.382185, "energy": 91.731339, "activity_lines": [ 10.935333, 13.443818, 17.877428, 18.739312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.46, "volume": 353299736, "typical_volume": 355616050.15, "trend": 18.92, "fair_value": 7.035962, "relative_strength": -33.617601, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.783113, "energy": 90.701943, "activity_lines": [ 9.815333, 12.127454, 16.749333, 18.05557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.04, "volume": 316810220, "typical_volume": 339446846.05, "trend": 18.713, "fair_value": 7.058462, "relative_strength": -29.913572, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.04787, "energy": 87.52612, "activity_lines": [ 9.323333, 11.159455, 15.717667, 17.41815 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.72, "volume": 372185860, "typical_volume": 324290641.6, "trend": 18.483667, "fair_value": 7.091987, "relative_strength": -19.918587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.179491, "energy": 84.463939, "activity_lines": [ 9.610667, 10.766909, 14.900524, 16.902473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }