{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e69a42f3-3a41-42e7-a569-0c7051b18d9e", "symbol": "3466", "name": "Skardin Industrial Corporation", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.522, "architecture_energy": 83.794, "architecture_maturity": 42.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.352, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 9.45, "upward_expansion": 20.09, "deceleration": 37.04, "rotation_down": 78.65, "downward_expansion": 95.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.73, 27.997273, 30.753095, 32.383548 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.0, "trend_reference": 34.421667, "distance_from_trend": -0.273713, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 44.299715, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.435662, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -54.579366, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.339498, "excess_performance": -0.78087, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.273713, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114935, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.435662, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.272329, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.545794, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142175, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.339498, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.463344, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 831092, "relative_activity": 0.289128, "balance": 0.463344, "dry_up": 0.372697, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142, "annualized_volatility": 0.538019, "from_high_reference": -0.519231, "from_low_reference": 0.048218 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.421667, "fair_value_reference": 44.299715, "structural_low": 23.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.051519, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.064101, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.26043, "worst_return": -0.264793, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.033991, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.105851, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.059081, "worst_return": -0.27796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.213003, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.263873, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.047836, "worst_return": -0.339498, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.140451, "energy": 69.894523, "activity_lines": [ 28.736666, 30.123636, 32.464524, 33.73172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.5, "volume": 1113362, "typical_volume": 2933366.05, "trend": 34.923333, "fair_value": 44.313817, "relative_strength": -54.730704, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.698507, "energy": 83.312744, "activity_lines": [ 26.84, 28.938182, 31.557857, 33.023763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 25.0, "volume": 831092, "typical_volume": 2874479.75, "trend": 34.421667, "fair_value": 44.299715, "relative_strength": -54.579366, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.522124, "energy": 83.793783, "activity_lines": [ 25.73, 27.997273, 30.753095, 32.383548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }