{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e6a72b1d-38d2-4457-8fc9-0f80c7c5bc75", "symbol": "CLR", "name": "Lion-Phillip S-REIT ETF", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 70.305, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.543, "architecture_energy": 18.333, "architecture_maturity": 17.575, "architecture_confidence": 61.148, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.11, "rotation_up": 28.65, "upward_expansion": 24.84, "deceleration": 37.39, "rotation_down": 34.04, "downward_expansion": 49.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.825701, 0.825571, 0.825601, 0.827179 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.816, "trend_reference": 0.832811, "distance_from_trend": -0.020186, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.776183, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.051298, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.052474, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.047841, "excess_performance": -0.202676, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020186, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008887, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.051298, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020172, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.180525, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100368, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.047841, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.70447, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12920161, "relative_activity": 1.34327, "balance": 0.70447, "dry_up": 1.353376, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015921, "annualized_volatility": 0.098321, "from_high_reference": -0.065052, "from_low_reference": 0.035616 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.832811, "fair_value_reference": 0.776183, "structural_low": 0.793, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.005494, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.016763, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.028608, "worst_return": -0.084326, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.000206, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010002, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.087126, "worst_return": -0.106446, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.051205, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.046231, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.093903, "worst_return": 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0.825571, 0.825601, 0.827179 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }