{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e6a77ad7-a892-47cf-aa50-c5974e928994",
    "symbol": "ROAD",
    "name": "Construction Partners Inc",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 89.306,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -39.563,
    "architecture_energy": 22.921,
    "architecture_maturity": 12.398,
    "architecture_confidence": 91.893,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 38.32,
        "rotation_up": 22.78,
        "upward_expansion": 4.73,
        "deceleration": 48.91,
        "rotation_down": 44.11,
        "downward_expansion": 75.73
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        108.386667,
        108.949636,
        112.752,
        114.517871
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 119.74,
    "trend_reference": 116.574667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.027153,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 83.259263,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.438158,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -10.133865,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.057536,
    "excess_performance": -0.24499,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.027153,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.003699,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.438158,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.397363,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.101339,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.121799,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.057536,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.93298,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 5644591,
      "relative_activity": 1.525715,
      "balance": 0.93298,
      "dry_up": 1.889425,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.116582,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.581917,
      "from_high_reference": -0.20702,
      "from_low_reference": 0.281738
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 116.574667,
      "fair_value_reference": 83.259263,
      "structural_low": 93.42,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.089202,
        "positive_rate": 0.727273,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.272727,
        "median_excess_return": 0.117636,
        "regime_survival": 0.727273,
        "best_return": 0.308738,
        "worst_return": -0.220546,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.159984,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.2,
        "median_excess_return": 0.088496,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
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        "worst_return": -0.159727,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.35392,
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": 0.233792,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
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        "worst_return": -0.033101,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
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        "worst_return": 0.138502,
        "sufficient": false
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 2505578.55,
        "trend": 115.560667,
        "fair_value": 75.817276,
        "relative_strength": -3.026415,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 2606044.9,
        "trend": 116.245333,
        "fair_value": 77.102468,
        "relative_strength": -13.727937,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "direction": 50.057031,
        "energy": 46.207835,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 2681263.7,
        "trend": 116.074333,
        "fair_value": 77.640096,
        "relative_strength": -18.145041,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "direction": 35.223113,
        "energy": 22.901369,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 2662345.65,
        "trend": 116.145,
        "fair_value": 78.194006,
        "relative_strength": -17.534542,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "direction": 25.329816,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 2644481.65,
        "trend": 116.118333,
        "fair_value": 78.698173,
        "relative_strength": -17.587484,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
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        "energy": 14.573033,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 113.87,
        "volume": 3625059,
        "typical_volume": 2750410.75,
        "trend": 116.353333,
        "fair_value": 79.21734,
        "relative_strength": -16.710017,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -11.795728,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 2812045.25,
        "trend": 117.074,
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        "relative_strength": -12.270827,
        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 122.87,
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        "typical_volume": 2778482.75,
        "trend": 117.536333,
        "fair_value": 80.383109,
        "relative_strength": -7.881343,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 22.351576,
        "energy": 9.56025,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 3401321,
        "typical_volume": 2743994.35,
        "trend": 117.699,
        "fair_value": 80.889712,
        "relative_strength": -19.417875,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -25.649206,
        "energy": 12.190916,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 94.89,
        "volume": 3992514,
        "typical_volume": 2837903.25,
        "trend": 117.192667,
        "fair_value": 81.312532,
        "relative_strength": -29.979592,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -66.629457,
        "energy": 43.367372,
        "activity_lines": [
          108.944667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 104.47,
        "volume": 5887852,
        "typical_volume": 3012485.95,
        "trend": 117.037333,
        "fair_value": 81.795737,
        "relative_strength": -19.214099,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -53.745022,
        "energy": 52.449714,
        "activity_lines": [
          106.279333,
          110.248182,
          114.452952,
          116.052473
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 103.29,
        "volume": 13026786,
        "typical_volume": 3526489.25,
        "trend": 116.711333,
        "fair_value": 82.273814,
        "relative_strength": -18.528426,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -55.828851,
        "energy": 60.918132,
        "activity_lines": [
          103.847333,
          108.578182,
          113.298,
          115.165548
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 103.35,
        "volume": 3401519,
        "typical_volume": 3571213.4,
        "trend": 116.417667,
        "fair_value": 82.717147,
        "relative_strength": -18.742287,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -56.433878,
        "energy": 60.256118,
        "activity_lines": [
          102.734667,
          107.187455,
          112.219238,
          114.303527
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 119.74,
        "volume": 5644591,
        "typical_volume": 3699637.55,
        "trend": 116.574667,
        "fair_value": 83.259263,
        "relative_strength": -10.133865,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -39.562958,
        "energy": 22.921402,
        "activity_lines": [
          108.386667,
          108.949636,
          112.752,
          114.517871
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}