{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e6a9641f-49da-47ca-88ab-50e9ec937bf2", "symbol": "AHYU", "name": "BNP PARIBAS EASY II US High Yield Opportunities UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 88.927, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.52, "architecture_energy": 66.673, "architecture_maturity": 62.206, "architecture_confidence": 65.989, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.62, "rotation_up": 58.86, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.67, "rotation_down": 26.48, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.3461, 12.334736, 12.265145, 12.222797 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.332, "trend_reference": 12.178733, "distance_from_trend": 0.012585, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.474455, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.074735, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.551555, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.013645, "excess_performance": -0.039667, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012585, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00947, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.074735, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015214, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045516, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044765, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.013645, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.765675, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.765675, "dry_up": 1.06045, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003194, "annualized_volatility": 0.025519, "from_high_reference": -0.005444, "from_low_reference": 0.051546 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.178733, "fair_value_reference": 11.474455, "structural_low": 12.05, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.000942, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.008897, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.015611, "worst_return": -0.00628, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.005162, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.016753, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.006511, "worst_return": 0.003813, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.010349, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.032793, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.010349, "worst_return": 0.010349, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010364, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-04-05", "close": 10.3788, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-04-12", "close": 10.3085, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-04-19", "close": 10.2558, "volume": 2094, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.77678, "energy": 91.823578, "activity_lines": [ 12.317033, 12.271273, 12.196281, 12.169726 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.376, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 682.3, "trend": 12.141983, "fair_value": 11.452654, "relative_strength": -0.178501, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.342668, "energy": 96.07115, "activity_lines": [ 12.342, 12.298982, 12.21721, 12.185677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.3755, "volume": 925, "typical_volume": 682.55, "trend": 12.1552, "fair_value": 11.460281, "relative_strength": -0.559536, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.891326, "energy": 82.67672, "activity_lines": [ 12.355433, 12.3208, 12.237167, 12.200743 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.332, "volume": 1866, "typical_volume": 775.85, "trend": 12.166967, "fair_value": 11.467426, "relative_strength": -2.375508, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.25975, "energy": 68.081963, "activity_lines": [ 12.351, 12.328918, 12.251695, 12.212149 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.332, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 775.85, "trend": 12.178733, "fair_value": 11.474455, "relative_strength": -4.551555, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.519995, "energy": 66.672505, "activity_lines": [ 12.3461, 12.334736, 12.265145, 12.222797 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }