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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.692, "architecture_energy": 86.893, "architecture_maturity": 26.966, "architecture_confidence": 79.62, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.5, "rotation_up": 82.21, "upward_expansion": 95.22, "deceleration": 41.99, "rotation_down": 8.7, "downward_expansion": 19.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 229.078, 220.356529, 209.913683, 205.74388 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 238.35, "trend_reference": 200.78844, "distance_from_trend": 0.18707, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 160.027507, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.489431, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.717303, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.255206, "excess_performance": 0.129581, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.18707, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059948, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.489431, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.268104, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.107173, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.195725, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.255206, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.827656, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3634194, "relative_activity": 0.804028, "balance": 2.827656, "dry_up": 1.238885, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053687, "annualized_volatility": 0.257823, "from_high_reference": -0.007413, "from_low_reference": 0.40467 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 200.78844, "fair_value_reference": 160.027507, "structural_low": 186.23, 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"up", "direction": 58.76461, "energy": 60.684003, "activity_lines": [ 207.613404, 203.198749, 199.147257, 197.594707 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 210.68, "volume": 4575175, "typical_volume": 4256399.65, "trend": 194.801246, "fair_value": 158.004312, "relative_strength": 2.612741, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.125173, "energy": 65.716957, "activity_lines": [ 209.325943, 205.298967, 200.349138, 198.696892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 227.86, "volume": 8649536, "typical_volume": 4495364.9, "trend": 196.582997, "fair_value": 158.64869, "relative_strength": 11.29124, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.870537, "energy": 76.652033, "activity_lines": [ 216.201464, 210.099366, 203.188723, 200.829715 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 233.01, "volume": 5540061, "typical_volume": 4593452.8, "trend": 198.607457, "fair_value": 159.319041, "relative_strength": 12.278668, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.867283, "energy": 80.429729, "activity_lines": [ 222.54951, 215.086129, 206.378273, 203.179845 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 238.35, "volume": 3634194, "typical_volume": 4519985.0, "trend": 200.78844, "fair_value": 160.027507, "relative_strength": 10.717303, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.691751, "energy": 86.8932, "activity_lines": [ 229.078, 220.356529, 209.913683, 205.74388 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }