{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e6ae4305-4756-48a4-9c99-6076e74bcad8", "symbol": "ESTC", "name": "Elastic NV", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 88.532, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.192, "architecture_energy": 76.416, "architecture_maturity": 40.0, "architecture_confidence": 69.713, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.01, "rotation_up": 73.82, "upward_expansion": 89.48, "deceleration": 44.99, "rotation_down": 10.6, "downward_expansion": 16.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.544667, 63.268727, 59.772762, 57.830323 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 75.11, "trend_reference": 57.424, "distance_from_trend": 0.30799, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 86.46859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.131361, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.800149, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.270467, "excess_performance": 0.144842, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.30799, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085066, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.131361, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.267415, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.018001, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.357262, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.270467, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.136795, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10953898, "relative_activity": 1.183559, "balance": 1.136795, "dry_up": 0.953348, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092501, "annualized_volatility": 0.542839, "from_high_reference": -0.218134, "from_low_reference": 0.786207 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.424, "fair_value_reference": 86.46859, "structural_low": 42.05, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.024379, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.008172, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.162642, "worst_return": -0.253917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.146545, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.182662, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.188919, "worst_return": -0.206691, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.215843, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.329163, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.032863, "worst_return": -0.40222, "sufficient": true 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58.376333, "fair_value": 86.390577, "relative_strength": -18.226946, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.924927, "energy": 19.752154, "activity_lines": [ 59.632, 59.511091, 56.354238, 56.159613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 58.68, "volume": 7435214, "typical_volume": 9594169.6, "trend": 57.766667, "fair_value": 86.353526, "relative_strength": -20.679586, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.092744, "energy": 17.935284, "activity_lines": [ 59.52, 59.501455, 56.784857, 56.179204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.79, "volume": 8181868, "typical_volume": 9519376.8, "trend": 57.541, "fair_value": 86.368141, "relative_strength": -11.328732, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.316051, "energy": 42.675206, "activity_lines": [ 61.797333, 60.637636, 57.869048, 56.696839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 75.11, "volume": 10953898, "typical_volume": 9255047.8, "trend": 57.424, "fair_value": 86.46859, "relative_strength": -1.800149, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.192223, "energy": 76.416329, "activity_lines": [ 66.544667, 63.268727, 59.772762, 57.830323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }