{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e6bc52d4-759d-4082-a252-e3fd6873465d", "symbol": "JSPR", "name": "Jasper Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.524, "architecture_energy": 23.05, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 56.857, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.3, "rotation_up": 36.52, "upward_expansion": 20.99, "deceleration": 44.12, "rotation_down": 18.65, "downward_expansion": 52.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.698813, 0.62212, 0.66312, 0.766428 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.7095, "trend_reference": 0.936747, "distance_from_trend": -0.242591, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.534323, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.925585, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -59.118615, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.474444, "excess_performance": -0.661898, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.242591, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.295457, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.925585, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011994, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.591186, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106551, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.474444, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.2568, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2788966, "relative_activity": 0.531971, "balance": 2.2568, "dry_up": 3.038299, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.303394, "annualized_volatility": 1.528865, "from_high_reference": -0.774045, "from_low_reference": 1.251666 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.936747, "fair_value_reference": 9.534323, "structural_low": 0.3151, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.040486, "positive_rate": 0.37037, "directional_follow_through": 0.62963, "median_excess_return": -0.065876, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.48289, "worst_return": -0.468099, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.265566, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.342577, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.959165, "worst_return": -0.547838, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.508389, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.598416, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.836661, "worst_return": -0.691032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042573, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.121904, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.179368, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.371441, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061377, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.214431, "active": false }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 0.61086, 0.581796, 0.693512, 0.829575 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.6884, "volume": 6666103, "typical_volume": 5125680.0, "trend": 1.003763, "fair_value": 9.712916, "relative_strength": -60.491325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.862677, "energy": 22.374961, "activity_lines": [ 0.661207, 0.593884, 0.681433, 0.806925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.63, "volume": 2262454, "typical_volume": 5157985.4, "trend": 0.96343, "fair_value": 9.618878, "relative_strength": -62.832825, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.159751, "energy": 24.621076, "activity_lines": [ 0.676393, 0.598293, 0.667086, 0.782811 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.7095, "volume": 2788966, "typical_volume": 5242698.85, "trend": 0.936747, "fair_value": 9.534323, "relative_strength": -59.118615, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.52369, "energy": 23.049608, "activity_lines": [ 0.698813, 0.62212, 0.66312, 0.766428 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }