{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e6c0cec4-75e3-4da7-bc64-f365215f4e8d", "symbol": "603828", "name": "Suzhou Kelida Building& Decoration Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.887, "architecture_energy": 60.031, "architecture_maturity": 53.269, "architecture_confidence": 93.221, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.38, "rotation_up": 23.09, "upward_expansion": 10.75, "deceleration": 47.76, "rotation_down": 58.51, "downward_expansion": 84.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.164667, 4.279455, 4.70181, 5.10557 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.17, "trend_reference": 5.759, "distance_from_trend": -0.275916, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.138397, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.007636, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.537421, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.397399, "excess_performance": -0.354195, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.275916, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148035, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.007636, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.379676, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.285374, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13663, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.397399, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.948481, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11979421, "relative_activity": 0.694921, "balance": 0.948481, "dry_up": 0.596413, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123778, "annualized_volatility": 0.491447, "from_high_reference": -0.570103, "from_low_reference": 0.055696 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.759, "fair_value_reference": 4.138397, "structural_low": 3.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.016378, "positive_rate": 0.535714, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": -0.000785, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.552486, "worst_return": -0.334586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.005797, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.03618, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.748503, "worst_return": -0.339552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.017434, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.017882, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.922156, "worst_return": -0.376866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.197761, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.012306, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.453258, "worst_return": -0.132646, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036364, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074713, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.316964, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027397, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.128472, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.551829, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.132554, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057851, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.350649, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": 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"typical_volume": 19185103.45, "trend": 6.021667, "fair_value": 4.124487, "relative_strength": -27.810544, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.710887, "energy": 60.47384, "activity_lines": [ 4.249333, 4.469273, 4.901667, 5.337892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.15, "volume": 8271881, "typical_volume": 18666344.8, "trend": 5.899333, "fair_value": 4.131667, "relative_strength": -27.146393, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.605002, "energy": 59.886984, "activity_lines": [ 4.202, 4.358364, 4.79481, 5.21714 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.17, "volume": 11979421, "typical_volume": 17238538.95, "trend": 5.759, "fair_value": 4.138397, "relative_strength": -28.537421, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.886534, "energy": 60.031131, "activity_lines": [ 4.164667, 4.279455, 4.70181, 5.10557 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }