{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e6c1eae7-9da7-4877-8892-6eda4f4118b7", "symbol": "EL4I", "name": "Deka MSCI USA LC UCITS ETF", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.361, "architecture_energy": 68.821, "architecture_maturity": 77.529, "architecture_confidence": 81.617, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.51, "rotation_up": 57.6, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.14, "rotation_down": 28.67, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 447.700006, 445.512746, 439.190095, 429.145942 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 457.600006, "trend_reference": 417.295003, "distance_from_trend": 0.096586, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 354.603093, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.290457, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.408043, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.157862, "excess_performance": 0.093222, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096586, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039332, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.290457, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03476, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.04408, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052912, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.157862, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.185651, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 702, "relative_activity": 1.090062, "balance": 2.185651, "dry_up": 0.822981, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018342, "annualized_volatility": 0.12681, "from_high_reference": -0.000437, "from_low_reference": 0.241843 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 417.295003, "fair_value_reference": 354.603093, "structural_low": 374.848895, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.011235, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.000754, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.078398, "worst_return": -0.110028, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.032973, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.0141, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.118477, "worst_return": -0.188259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.072933, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.076292, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.182459, "worst_return": -0.083353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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445.013334, 443.236563, 434.53287, 424.831706 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 438.950012, "volume": 488, "typical_volume": 670.1, "trend": 415.559515, "fair_value": 353.370013, "relative_strength": 3.101369, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.39677, "energy": 59.913372, "activity_lines": [ 443.313338, 442.675527, 436.0806, 426.433652 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 457.600006, "volume": 702, "typical_volume": 644.0, "trend": 417.295003, "fair_value": 354.603093, "relative_strength": 4.408043, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.360986, "energy": 68.821375, "activity_lines": [ 447.700006, 445.512746, 439.190095, 429.145942 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }