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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.557, "architecture_energy": 83.72, "architecture_maturity": 16.88, "architecture_confidence": 78.073, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.93, "rotation_up": 80.23, "upward_expansion": 91.07, "deceleration": 44.84, "rotation_down": 10.7, "downward_expansion": 20.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 641.968966, 599.769028, 586.636277, 578.704817 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 674.0, "trend_reference": 568.295407, "distance_from_trend": 0.186003, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 462.875428, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.456115, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 23.090451, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.2617, "excess_performance": 0.305409, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.186003, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017794, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.456115, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.230905, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073115, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.2617, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.491626, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7435066, "relative_activity": 0.669124, "balance": 7.491626, "dry_up": 1.34223, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062746, "annualized_volatility": 0.418555, "from_high_reference": -0.034384, "from_low_reference": 0.465855 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 568.295407, "fair_value_reference": 462.875428, "structural_low": 470.799988, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.023721, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": -0.050947, "regime_survival": 0.68, "best_return": 0.295223, "worst_return": -0.208067, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.029906, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.043673, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.388363, "worst_return": -0.206906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.043241, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.063849, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.346842, "worst_return": -0.252044, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"mixed", "direction": 38.603837, "energy": 28.706127, "activity_lines": [ 582.860669, 561.516744, 568.832821, 565.787665 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 655.0, "volume": 10293408, "typical_volume": 10909507.15, "trend": 564.980407, "fair_value": 460.632444, "relative_strength": 21.243774, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.768433, "energy": 64.131261, "activity_lines": [ 613.843913, 579.527431, 577.20824, 571.671295 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 674.0, "volume": 7435066, "typical_volume": 11111635.95, "trend": 568.295407, "fair_value": 462.875428, "relative_strength": 23.090451, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.557259, "energy": 83.720355, "activity_lines": [ 641.968966, 599.769028, 586.636277, 578.704817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }