{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e6c490c5-cecb-47bf-9b0e-223307e4baa4", "symbol": "TTEQ", "name": "T. ROWE PRICE TECHNOLOGY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.305, "architecture_energy": 23.766, "architecture_maturity": 71.85, "architecture_confidence": 89.502, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.56, "rotation_up": 27.03, "upward_expansion": 57.07, "deceleration": 88.2, "rotation_down": 31.24, "downward_expansion": 18.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.54112, 41.166025, 40.984792, 39.211283 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 41.9965, "trend_reference": 36.981023, "distance_from_trend": 0.135623, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.132277, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.34897, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.818148, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.308543, "excess_performance": 0.121089, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.135623, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088867, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.34897, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050334, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.058181, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027917, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.308543, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.049952, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 625222, "relative_activity": 1.078103, "balance": 1.049952, "dry_up": 1.128194, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074516, "annualized_volatility": 0.313552, "from_high_reference": -0.082244, "from_low_reference": 0.463803 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.981023, "fair_value_reference": 31.132277, "structural_low": 28.69, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047356, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066434, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-25", "close": 25.425, "volume": 16706, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-01", "close": 24.8088, "volume": 46777, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.3803, "volume": 1072391, "typical_volume": 543581.8, "trend": 36.476967, "fair_value": 30.924429, "relative_strength": 5.181732, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.568598, "energy": 22.608165, "activity_lines": [ 40.70678, 41.621351, 40.597153, 38.681257 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.39, "volume": 381453, "typical_volume": 553020.4, "trend": 36.694117, "fair_value": 31.015457, "relative_strength": 4.487391, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.051954, "energy": 21.72157, "activity_lines": [ 40.0972, 41.132738, 40.68659, 38.869194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.9965, "volume": 625222, "typical_volume": 579928.15, "trend": 36.981023, "fair_value": 31.132277, "relative_strength": 5.818148, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.30546, "energy": 23.766291, "activity_lines": [ 40.54112, 41.166025, 40.984792, 39.211283 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }