{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e6c89783-0bdf-47f8-9891-2015845b8530", "symbol": "ECR", "name": "ECR Minerals plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.331, "architecture_energy": 52.338, "architecture_maturity": 37.345, "architecture_confidence": 95.192, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.9, "rotation_up": 16.97, "upward_expansion": 9.32, "deceleration": 43.74, "rotation_down": 59.84, "downward_expansion": 82.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.001973, 0.002044, 0.002209, 0.002335 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.002, "trend_reference": 0.002554, "distance_from_trend": -0.216812, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.00261, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.233792, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.057507, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.428571, "excess_performance": -0.479807, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.216812, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035746, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.233792, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18181, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.260575, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.25911, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.428571, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.264864, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57213032, "relative_activity": 1.301163, "balance": 0.264864, "dry_up": 1.025654, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.169615, "annualized_volatility": 0.56206, "from_high_reference": -0.545455, "from_low_reference": 0.176471 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.002554, "fair_value_reference": 0.00261, "structural_low": 0.0017, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.06, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.575758, "median_excess_return": -0.066579, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.869565, "worst_return": -0.342857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.093789, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.099338, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.454545, "worst_return": -0.444444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.08, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.14494, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.217391, "worst_return": -0.555556, "sufficient": true }, { 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0.002189, 0.002335, 0.002464 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.002, "volume": 8419803, "typical_volume": 46929436.75, "trend": 0.002624, "fair_value": 0.002634, "relative_strength": -25.674785, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.292416, "energy": 53.682975, "activity_lines": [ 0.002067, 0.00214, 0.002294, 0.002422 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.00185, "volume": 86257401, "typical_volume": 48500888.05, "trend": 0.002579, "fair_value": 0.002621, "relative_strength": -31.820333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.536734, "energy": 59.444084, "activity_lines": [ 0.001987, 0.002073, 0.002242, 0.002372 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.002, "volume": 57213032, "typical_volume": 43970690.85, "trend": 0.002554, "fair_value": 0.00261, "relative_strength": -26.057507, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.330748, "energy": 52.337727, "activity_lines": [ 0.001973, 0.002044, 0.002209, 0.002335 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }