{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e6d10a1d-f494-4d4c-bc6f-4329a5fd2813", "symbol": "OPTI", "name": "OptiCept Technologies AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.235, "architecture_energy": 21.264, "architecture_maturity": 46.161, "architecture_confidence": 76.874, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.71, "rotation_up": 30.61, "upward_expansion": 61.98, "deceleration": 87.2, "rotation_down": 25.12, "downward_expansion": 14.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.767667, 2.837818, 2.645414, 2.494669 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.725, "trend_reference": 2.344267, "distance_from_trend": 0.16241, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.820612, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.286764, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.740453, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.310096, "excess_performance": 0.248602, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.16241, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001353, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.286764, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.280981, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.197405, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.3037, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.310096, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.214357, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 539863, "relative_activity": 0.581959, "balance": 2.214357, "dry_up": 0.675957, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.179958, "annualized_volatility": 1.150066, "from_high_reference": -0.597489, "from_low_reference": 0.703125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.344267, "fair_value_reference": 3.820612, "structural_low": 1.6, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.092147, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.107953, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.046667, "worst_return": -0.167143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.198565, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.081568, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.328333, "worst_return": -0.226209, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.273964, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.292844, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.188333, "worst_return": -0.359594, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.337911, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.272144, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.207488, "worst_return": -0.468333, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.264019, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.113806, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.215289, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001972, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.05062, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.117021, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007812, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.215356, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075423, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.103286, "active": false 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51.029686, "activity_lines": [ 2.947333, 2.819182, 2.50039, 2.383125 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.855, "volume": 653683, "typical_volume": 1177545.9, "trend": 2.326767, "fair_value": 3.913913, "relative_strength": -14.713756, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.225575, "energy": 41.710986, "activity_lines": [ 2.917667, 2.866727, 2.552081, 2.41771 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.81, "volume": 515263, "typical_volume": 1177413.1, "trend": 2.336433, "fair_value": 3.880067, "relative_strength": -16.670737, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.179949, "energy": 37.338246, "activity_lines": [ 2.894333, 2.887782, 2.594195, 2.448886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.66, "volume": 799438, "typical_volume": 996686.65, "trend": 2.338933, "fair_value": 3.848849, "relative_strength": -21.465216, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.672373, "energy": 27.622512, "activity_lines": [ 2.817, 2.863455, 2.616662, 2.469761 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.725, "volume": 539863, "typical_volume": 927664.7, "trend": 2.344267, "fair_value": 3.820612, "relative_strength": -19.740453, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.235096, "energy": 21.263865, "activity_lines": [ 2.767667, 2.837818, 2.645414, 2.494669 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }