{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e6d230c1-78b4-4b05-8ddd-8b1ad6c0c2a9", "symbol": "AAUC", "name": "Allied Gold Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.161, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.302, "architecture_energy": 74.118, "architecture_maturity": 24.591, "architecture_confidence": 85.894, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.68, "rotation_up": 10.84, "upward_expansion": 16.43, "deceleration": 41.06, "rotation_down": 73.14, "downward_expansion": 89.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.893334, 30.760909, 33.762619, 36.023226 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 30.49, "trend_reference": 38.468, "distance_from_trend": -0.207393, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.312369, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.578781, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.820615, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.284608, "excess_performance": -0.405029, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.207393, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027503, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.578781, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.663889, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.168206, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.424099, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.284608, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.320725, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10159400, "relative_activity": 2.046098, "balance": 0.320725, "dry_up": 1.887083, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116797, "annualized_volatility": 0.464472, "from_high_reference": -0.303404, "from_low_reference": 0.943276 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.468, "fair_value_reference": 19.312369, "structural_low": 23.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.323341, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125946, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008396, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.278091, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.293907, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113726, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060097, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048848, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 15.75, "volume": 11700, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 13.65, "volume": 34668, 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.151714, "energy": 68.190719, "activity_lines": [ 32.316, 33.703818, 36.489476, 38.030645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.35, "volume": 5016500, "typical_volume": 4202620.0, "trend": 38.822, "fair_value": 19.197, "relative_strength": -17.137987, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.927007, "energy": 65.680436, "activity_lines": [ 31.017334, 32.700182, 35.598762, 37.410753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.440001, "volume": 16127500, "typical_volume": 4778145.0, "trend": 38.614667, "fair_value": 19.238344, "relative_strength": -27.966362, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.187311, "energy": 90.367468, "activity_lines": [ 28.876, 31.159091, 34.399238, 36.547398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.49, "volume": 10159400, "typical_volume": 4965255.0, "trend": 38.468, "fair_value": 19.312369, "relative_strength": -16.820615, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.301636, "energy": 74.117587, "activity_lines": [ 28.893334, 30.760909, 33.762619, 36.023226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }