{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e6d37d70-ecbd-4e0f-903b-3aa997f26541", "symbol": "BKAG", "name": "BNY MELLON ETF TR CORE BD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 56.102, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.129, "architecture_energy": 62.027, "architecture_maturity": 4.649, "architecture_confidence": 88.285, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.5, "rotation_up": 10.65, "upward_expansion": 13.75, "deceleration": 37.55, "rotation_down": 69.21, "downward_expansion": 89.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.293921, 41.434382, 41.535591, 41.611594 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 41.375, "trend_reference": 41.713455, "distance_from_trend": -0.008114, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.584709, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.045227, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.473097, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.012308, "excess_performance": -0.137933, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008114, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000894, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.045227, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019648, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.114731, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013696, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.012308, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.71533, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 621752, "relative_activity": 0.834942, "balance": 0.71533, "dry_up": 1.421147, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008759, "annualized_volatility": 0.044311, "from_high_reference": -0.025838, "from_low_reference": 0.021102 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.713455, "fair_value_reference": 39.584709, "structural_low": 41.06861, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -6.5e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.012311, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.04434, "worst_return": -0.038819, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.000661, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.015024, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.062963, "worst_return": -0.070078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.011114, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036346, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.034754, "worst_return": -0.081631, 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.114157, "energy": 18.095807, "activity_lines": [ 41.659463, 41.648187, 41.673818, 41.728708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 41.501005, "volume": 467415, "typical_volume": 844690.55, "trend": 41.765273, "fair_value": 39.501543, "relative_strength": -8.502656, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.459831, "energy": 27.377517, "activity_lines": [ 41.590762, 41.625714, 41.652474, 41.711375 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.174162, "volume": 1360723, "typical_volume": 870041.65, "trend": 41.746718, "fair_value": 39.527689, "relative_strength": -8.450168, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.128694, "energy": 58.268444, "activity_lines": [ 41.427976, 41.5485, 41.604533, 41.673239 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.144268, "volume": 1783225, "typical_volume": 936634.6, "trend": 41.728043, "fair_value": 39.554674, "relative_strength": -9.190763, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.109856, "energy": 67.184209, "activity_lines": [ 41.294536, 41.467903, 41.557895, 41.634371 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.375, "volume": 621752, "typical_volume": 744665.1, "trend": 41.713455, "fair_value": 39.584709, "relative_strength": -11.473097, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.128839, "energy": 62.02673, "activity_lines": [ 41.293921, 41.434382, 41.535591, 41.611594 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }