{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e6d6b08a-7906-4d64-99e7-654e1254555d", "symbol": "8034", "name": "OPNET Technologies Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.001, "architecture_energy": 84.223, "architecture_maturity": 27.033, "architecture_confidence": 85.773, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.56, "rotation_up": 9.98, "upward_expansion": 20.49, "deceleration": 37.23, "rotation_down": 80.71, "downward_expansion": 98.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.956666, 19.746459, 20.94287, 21.616259 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 18.799999, "trend_reference": 22.458772, "distance_from_trend": -0.162911, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.751825, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.094056, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.925308, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.174867, "excess_performance": -0.616239, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.162911, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046976, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.094056, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200419, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.409253, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129367, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.174867, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.724094, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 435611, "relative_activity": 0.202558, "balance": 0.724094, "dry_up": 0.244065, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070053, "annualized_volatility": 0.389111, "from_high_reference": -0.340716, "from_low_reference": 0.068182 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.458772, "fair_value_reference": 20.751825, "structural_low": 17.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.002359, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": -0.007358, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.180982, "worst_return": -0.167421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.002073, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.011568, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.366829, "worst_return": -0.129007, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.004935, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.045858, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.452928, "worst_return": -0.143988, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-31", "close": 18.4, "volume": 782345, "typical_volume": 2372753.75, "trend": 22.782281, "fair_value": 20.723096, "relative_strength": -39.725354, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.225335, "energy": 85.170559, "activity_lines": [ 19.536666, 20.509234, 21.529912, 22.099157 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.1, "volume": 397700, "typical_volume": 2251120.05, "trend": 22.602632, "fair_value": 20.740178, "relative_strength": -38.48265, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.193684, "energy": 82.386994, "activity_lines": [ 19.196666, 20.122919, 21.240439, 21.861591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 18.799999, "volume": 435611, "typical_volume": 2150551.45, "trend": 22.458772, "fair_value": 20.751825, "relative_strength": -40.925308, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.00071, "energy": 84.222594, "activity_lines": [ 18.956666, 19.746459, 20.94287, 21.616259 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }