{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e6d89bb8-172e-4041-aa2e-fc89c3e40f8c", "symbol": "FISR", "name": "STATE STREET FIXED INCOME SECTOR ROTATION ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 56.231, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.527, "architecture_energy": 58.551, "architecture_maturity": 4.583, "architecture_confidence": 87.786, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.33, "rotation_up": 10.85, "upward_expansion": 12.73, "deceleration": 37.83, "rotation_down": 67.75, "downward_expansion": 88.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.218108, 25.304298, 25.356568, 25.401455 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.28, "trend_reference": 25.465452, "distance_from_trend": -0.007283, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.309288, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.039932, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.473312, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.012207, "excess_performance": -0.137832, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007283, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001154, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.039932, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017003, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.114733, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012153, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.012207, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.881939, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4940105, "relative_activity": 4.69943, "balance": 0.881939, "dry_up": 1.400418, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009589, "annualized_volatility": 0.050302, "from_high_reference": -0.026468, "from_low_reference": 0.020677 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.465452, "fair_value_reference": 24.309288, "structural_low": 24.999448, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.014033, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": 0.00832, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.054322, "worst_return": -0.037446, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.003188, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.024941, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.061631, "worst_return": -0.079995, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.004548, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.044456, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.028802, "worst_return": -0.093783, "sufficient": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 1000733.9, "trend": 25.495721, "fair_value": 24.264528, "relative_strength": -8.548902, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.106085, "energy": 19.05037, "activity_lines": [ 25.410002, 25.416881, 25.424623, 25.461337 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.123475, "volume": 250049, "typical_volume": 917477.45, "trend": 25.483432, "fair_value": 24.278068, "relative_strength": -8.582218, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.22562, "energy": 49.840835, "activity_lines": [ 25.300095, 25.368544, 25.394899, 25.437322 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.120684, "volume": 203236, "typical_volume": 906647.8, "trend": 25.47318, "fair_value": 24.292679, "relative_strength": -9.26189, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.949535, "energy": 62.817497, "activity_lines": [ 25.21493, 25.320512, 25.367533, 25.413918 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.28, "volume": 4940105, "typical_volume": 1051213.65, "trend": 25.465452, "fair_value": 24.309288, "relative_strength": -11.473312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.52673, "energy": 58.550992, "activity_lines": [ 25.218108, 25.304298, 25.356568, 25.401455 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }