{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e6dcba24-7e8c-498c-9e9f-e841473b1639", "symbol": "5905", "name": "Nan Ren Lake Leisure Amusement Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.031, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.852, "architecture_energy": 23.861, "architecture_maturity": 32.199, "architecture_confidence": 62.418, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.95, "rotation_up": 9.3, "upward_expansion": 15.79, "deceleration": 64.88, "rotation_down": 57.05, "downward_expansion": 60.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.186667, 8.346364, 8.309286, 8.293312 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.91, "trend_reference": 8.377333, "distance_from_trend": -0.055785, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.132244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.348018, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -39.657533, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.134573, "excess_performance": -0.575945, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.055785, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030214, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.348018, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008729, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.396575, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064129, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.134573, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.541178, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2291100, "relative_activity": 0.61757, "balance": 1.541178, "dry_up": 0.537838, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075756, "annualized_volatility": 0.326784, "from_high_reference": -0.362097, "from_low_reference": 0.040789 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.377333, "fair_value_reference": 12.132244, "structural_low": 7.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.024194, "positive_rate": 0.294118, "directional_follow_through": 0.294118, "median_excess_return": -0.049367, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.132231, "worst_return": -0.106122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.044733, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.091241, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.025751, "worst_return": -0.161074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.116788, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.148419, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.109312, "worst_return": -0.231511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.045833, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.121978, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.157258, "worst_return": -0.253881, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-09-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04918, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083004, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056391, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016129, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01626, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021505, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.254181, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.133152, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040134, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.197183, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072727, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.170149, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.062796, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 12.45, "volume": 2617000, "typical_volume": 11062850.0, "trend": 12.666667, "fair_value": 12.330893, "relative_strength": -6.942127, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", 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12.220064, "relative_strength": -35.572948, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.037942, "energy": 23.572856, "activity_lines": [ 8.613333, 8.531455, 8.344667, 8.359849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.2, "volume": 2347003, "typical_volume": 3844582.4, "trend": 8.442, "fair_value": 12.191538, "relative_strength": -36.164053, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.123904, "energy": 8.209167, "activity_lines": [ 8.493333, 8.491636, 8.342333, 8.341914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.19, "volume": 1749918, "typical_volume": 3746221.3, "trend": 8.411333, "fair_value": 12.162628, "relative_strength": -36.621413, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.345383, "energy": 3.430366, "activity_lines": [ 8.368, 8.447636, 8.339381, 8.325656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 7.91, "volume": 2291100, "typical_volume": 3709862.55, "trend": 8.377333, "fair_value": 12.132244, "relative_strength": -39.657533, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.85211, "energy": 23.861049, "activity_lines": [ 8.186667, 8.346364, 8.309286, 8.293312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }