{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e6e12d1f-acd0-47d4-bdea-c2519919b4f7", "symbol": "ALCOI", "name": "Coil S.A./N.V.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 68.464, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.866, "architecture_energy": 22.534, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 65.123, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.01, "rotation_up": 21.63, "upward_expansion": 1.86, "deceleration": 55.5, "rotation_down": 34.83, "downward_expansion": 63.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.19, 1.190182, 1.192762, 1.195247 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.19, "trend_reference": 1.196667, "distance_from_trend": -0.005571, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.981343, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.600851, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.429088, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.008475, "excess_performance": -0.044837, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005571, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020464, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.600851, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037016, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124291, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140622, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008475, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 726.117647, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17143, "relative_activity": 4.659563, "balance": 726.117647, "dry_up": 2.045881, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012928, "annualized_volatility": 0.121579, "from_high_reference": -0.217105, "from_low_reference": 0.0625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.196667, "fair_value_reference": 2.981343, "structural_low": 1.15, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 48, "median_return": -0.016009, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.035775, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.289474, "worst_return": -0.384058, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.078125, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.047235, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.3125, "worst_return": -0.464286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.095745, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.098524, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.135135, "worst_return": -0.550725, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.3115, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.32622, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.128205, "worst_return": -0.568841, "sufficient": true } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-01-07", "end": "2022-07-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.098824, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-07-15", "end": "2022-08-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013021, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2022-09-02", "end": "2022-09-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016949, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-09-16", "end": "2022-10-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075939, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2022-10-21", "end": "2023-01-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.049853, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-02-03", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.289855, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056604, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.122494, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067762, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068966, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.156863, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117517, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.631579, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.08, "volume": 2671, "typical_volume": 4249.35, "trend": 5.801, "fair_value": 7.652013, "relative_strength": -40.436801, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.463514, "energy": 47.555011, "activity_lines": [ 1.190667, 1.193455, 1.196762, 1.199161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.19, "volume": 735, "typical_volume": 4316.4, "trend": 1.204333, "fair_value": 3.064548, "relative_strength": -12.197285, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.945804, "energy": 44.733985, "activity_lines": [ 1.19, 1.192545, 1.195667, 1.198086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.19, "volume": 4685, "typical_volume": 3056.65, "trend": 1.202, "fair_value": 3.043458, "relative_strength": -11.142339, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.955544, "energy": 34.236802, "activity_lines": [ 1.19, 1.191818, 1.194524, 1.197161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.19, "volume": 8029, "typical_volume": 3077.35, "trend": 1.199667, "fair_value": 3.022048, "relative_strength": -10.434722, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.299052, "energy": 30.661349, "activity_lines": [ 1.19, 1.191091, 1.193762, 1.196387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.19, "volume": 251, "typical_volume": 3038.25, "trend": 1.198, "fair_value": 3.001215, "relative_strength": -10.958559, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.448303, "energy": 25.384945, "activity_lines": [ 1.19, 1.190545, 1.19319, 1.195763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.19, "volume": 17143, "typical_volume": 3679.1, "trend": 1.196667, "fair_value": 2.981343, "relative_strength": -12.429088, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.866293, "energy": 22.533963, "activity_lines": [ 1.19, 1.190182, 1.192762, 1.195247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }