{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e6e4c90d-fe57-4c64-96fe-5d317cf25617", "symbol": "HSJA", "name": "HSBC JAPAN SCREENED EQUITY UCIT", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.803, "architecture_energy": 57.229, "architecture_maturity": 65.785, "architecture_confidence": 79.301, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.94, "rotation_up": 54.68, "upward_expansion": 81.99, "deceleration": 68.06, "rotation_down": 26.95, "downward_expansion": 8.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.00157, 20.89492, 20.523546, 20.161124 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.549999, "trend_reference": 19.786292, "distance_from_trend": 0.089138, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.243847, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.326656, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.002009, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.098929, "excess_performance": 0.045618, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089138, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049047, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.326656, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078651, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.07002, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017186, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.098929, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.793983, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23703, "relative_activity": 2.296391, "balance": 2.793983, "dry_up": 1.323285, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024577, "annualized_volatility": 0.206532, "from_high_reference": -0.000464, "from_low_reference": 0.29469 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.786292, "fair_value_reference": 16.243847, "structural_low": 17.790001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.020477, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": 0.001342, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.07489, "worst_return": -0.09524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.04376, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.02671, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.124587, "worst_return": -0.009518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.060798, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.038122, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.20663, "worst_return": -0.028309, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.464138, "energy": 86.133611, "activity_lines": [ 20.887117, 20.682334, 20.097675, 19.82441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.329687, "volume": 17544, "typical_volume": 10455.4, "trend": 19.515687, "fair_value": 16.087532, "relative_strength": 6.465288, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.816153, "energy": 54.438386, "activity_lines": [ 20.732458, 20.66049, 20.160986, 19.881907 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.904869, "volume": 7140, "typical_volume": 10525.25, "trend": 19.615363, "fair_value": 16.137182, "relative_strength": 8.618872, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.362401, "energy": 55.879372, "activity_lines": [ 20.770213, 20.727411, 20.278364, 19.971531 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.70653, "volume": 6248, "typical_volume": 9884.55, "trend": 19.702475, "fair_value": 16.187841, "relative_strength": 5.574745, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.882589, "energy": 46.249391, "activity_lines": [ 20.746198, 20.739455, 20.365877, 20.041929 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.549999, "volume": 23703, "typical_volume": 10321.85, "trend": 19.786292, "fair_value": 16.243847, "relative_strength": 7.002009, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.803184, "energy": 57.228914, "activity_lines": [ 21.00157, 20.89492, 20.523546, 20.161124 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }