{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e6f75def-337f-4910-9955-e7f63eaa4425", "symbol": "600576", "name": "Zhejiang Sunriver Culture Tourism Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.214, "architecture_energy": 45.741, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.42, "rotation_up": 16.88, "upward_expansion": 11.1, "deceleration": 37.98, "rotation_down": 57.75, "downward_expansion": 82.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.554667, 5.660364, 5.748714, 5.85914 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.54, "trend_reference": 6.048, "distance_from_trend": -0.083995, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.871538, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.193776, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.029194, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.164404, "excess_performance": -0.1212, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.083995, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06014, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.193776, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016066, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160292, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124593, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.164404, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.413313, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37493302, "relative_activity": 0.637543, "balance": 0.413313, "dry_up": 1.057665, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097889, "annualized_volatility": 0.345579, "from_high_reference": -0.413757, "from_low_reference": 0.053232 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.048, "fair_value_reference": 6.871538, "structural_low": 5.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.031585, "positive_rate": 0.346154, "directional_follow_through": 0.653846, "median_excess_return": -0.022992, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.18, "worst_return": -0.126812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.071611, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.039901, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.189243, "worst_return": -0.240506, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.161858, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.162127, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.533865, "worst_return": -0.261076, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 5.755333, 5.811636, 5.85181, 5.971333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.37, "volume": 69710703, "typical_volume": 59704409.7, "trend": 6.103, "fair_value": 6.903077, "relative_strength": -17.315914, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.880641, "energy": 31.817673, "activity_lines": [ 5.624, 5.727818, 5.798714, 5.922645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.65, "volume": 41684228, "typical_volume": 59596426.9, "trend": 6.071333, "fair_value": 6.887628, "relative_strength": -12.681512, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.345758, "energy": 40.135386, "activity_lines": [ 5.616667, 5.702182, 5.777238, 5.893419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.54, "volume": 37493302, "typical_volume": 58809096.05, "trend": 6.048, "fair_value": 6.871538, "relative_strength": -16.029194, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.21411, "energy": 45.741121, "activity_lines": [ 5.554667, 5.660364, 5.748714, 5.85914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }