{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e6fcabee-c4c3-4375-a93e-9b1c345dc485", "symbol": "300490", "name": "HNAC Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.895, "architecture_energy": 84.657, "architecture_maturity": 23.225, "architecture_confidence": 93.855, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.31, "rotation_up": 12.64, "upward_expansion": 21.57, "deceleration": 37.18, "rotation_down": 71.81, "downward_expansion": 94.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.388667, 12.038545, 13.982762, 14.963936 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.92, "trend_reference": 15.690667, "distance_from_trend": -0.240313, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.764744, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.107319, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.079118, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.239311, "excess_performance": -0.246711, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.240313, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013325, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.107319, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.710241, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160791, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.483766, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.239311, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.60535, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71443635, "relative_activity": 0.803119, "balance": 0.60535, "dry_up": 0.848024, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12713, "annualized_volatility": 0.547343, "from_high_reference": -0.45521, "from_low_reference": 0.370115 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.690667, "fair_value_reference": 10.764744, "structural_low": 9.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.030899, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.005373, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.266766, "worst_return": -0.242178, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.053738, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.035706, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.424739, "worst_return": -0.327161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.093293, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.032635, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.536313, "worst_return": -0.28972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -58.421283, "energy": 79.989448, "activity_lines": [ 12.208667, 13.360182, 15.316048, 15.810989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.73, "volume": 90615817, "typical_volume": 96794878.65, "trend": 15.727667, "fair_value": 10.818397, "relative_strength": -21.646538, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.655147, "energy": 90.575235, "activity_lines": [ 11.498667, 12.668545, 14.77581, 15.487204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.39, "volume": 78716235, "typical_volume": 90925898.35, "trend": 15.693, "fair_value": 10.785641, "relative_strength": -15.529694, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.749522, "energy": 86.95472, "activity_lines": [ 11.288, 12.250545, 14.338952, 15.207355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.92, "volume": 71443635, "typical_volume": 88957713.1, "trend": 15.690667, "fair_value": 10.764744, "relative_strength": -16.079118, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.894727, "energy": 84.656775, "activity_lines": [ 11.388667, 12.038545, 13.982762, 14.963936 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }