{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7042913-d309-4f9d-9ea7-a4fe16a19e88", "symbol": "IBM", "name": "International Business Machines Corporation", "exchange": "BUE", "country": "AR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^MERV", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.698, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.588, "architecture_energy": 20.102, "architecture_maturity": 10.847, "architecture_confidence": 58.205, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.47, "rotation_up": 20.19, "upward_expansion": 8.44, "deceleration": 54.51, "rotation_down": 49.69, "downward_expansion": 45.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 24526.072302, 24985.272541, 25530.827786, 25294.467143 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 25080.0, "trend_reference": 25348.45162, "distance_from_trend": -0.01059, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22266.061998, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.126378, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.541184, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.010073, "excess_performance": -0.003826, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01059, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061835, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.126378, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052213, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135412, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02147, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010073, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.781326, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 144424, "relative_activity": 0.67488, "balance": 2.781326, "dry_up": 2.085118, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103186, "annualized_volatility": 0.627423, "from_high_reference": -0.224959, "from_low_reference": 0.212228 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25348.45162, "fair_value_reference": 22266.061998, "structural_low": 20689.169285, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.086264, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.118755, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.137117, "worst_return": 0.013617, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.151379, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.019605, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.38081, "worst_return": 0.011043, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.398286, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.042185, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.631262, "worst_return": 0.068586, "sufficient": false }, { 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"energy": 31.954732, "activity_lines": [ 24011.199378, 25131.736173, 25543.755976, 25321.205399 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 25080.0, "volume": 144424, "typical_volume": 213999.5, "trend": 25348.45162, "fair_value": 22266.061998, "relative_strength": -13.541184, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.588182, "energy": 20.10231, "activity_lines": [ 24526.072302, 24985.272541, 25530.827786, 25294.467143 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }