{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7076578-86d8-4978-82c6-95e9f2198aa4", "symbol": "301049", "name": "Anhui Chaoyue Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.095, "architecture_energy": 49.021, "architecture_maturity": 43.317, "architecture_confidence": 95.965, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 24.37, "upward_expansion": 7.75, "deceleration": 57.63, "rotation_down": 52.73, "downward_expansion": 81.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.266667, 18.364364, 19.966143, 20.965699 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.07, "trend_reference": 22.114333, "distance_from_trend": -0.137663, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.800513, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.163615, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.348912, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.195698, "excess_performance": -0.203098, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.137663, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053581, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.163615, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.268886, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.173489, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059689, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.195698, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.224157, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6237200, "relative_activity": 0.85214, "balance": 0.224157, "dry_up": 1.042961, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099593, "annualized_volatility": 0.416323, "from_high_reference": -0.317954, "from_low_reference": 0.229529 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.114333, "fair_value_reference": 22.800513, "structural_low": 15.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.106173, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.076442, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.722938, "worst_return": -0.255992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.316369, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.220619, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.454594, "worst_return": 0.182222, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.161621, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.025505, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.271376, "worst_return": 0.026846, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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[ 19.298, 21.122909, 22.221667, 22.627312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 18.65, "volume": 1746600, "typical_volume": 7181524.6, "trend": 22.668333, "fair_value": 22.940705, "relative_strength": -29.596284, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.564164, "energy": 82.473357, "activity_lines": [ 18.889334, 20.425818, 21.806048, 22.358301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.17, "volume": 11888004, "typical_volume": 7418249.8, "trend": 22.537667, "fair_value": 22.918077, "relative_strength": -28.070265, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.52612, "energy": 82.20397, "activity_lines": [ 18.494, 19.734364, 21.373334, 22.068086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.91, "volume": 8677600, "typical_volume": 7491493.0, "trend": 22.439333, "fair_value": 22.891218, "relative_strength": -21.329827, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.54884, "energy": 77.451518, "activity_lines": [ 18.201333, 19.156182, 20.949714, 21.769527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.9, "volume": 8758061, "typical_volume": 7404111.15, "trend": 22.285333, "fair_value": 22.859551, "relative_strength": -25.30516, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.260911, "energy": 65.45788, "activity_lines": [ 17.721333, 18.529818, 20.466524, 21.412151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.49, "volume": 6862750, "typical_volume": 7355537.55, "trend": 22.194667, "fair_value": 22.833205, "relative_strength": -16.346897, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.439804, "energy": 55.410911, "activity_lines": [ 17.918, 18.342546, 20.174762, 21.16729 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.07, "volume": 6237200, "typical_volume": 7319452.6, "trend": 22.114333, "fair_value": 22.800513, "relative_strength": -17.348912, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.094669, "energy": 49.021175, "activity_lines": [ 18.266667, 18.364364, 19.966143, 20.965699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }