{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e70ac75e-0f63-4c06-8538-6ba6f9b3b253", "symbol": "STVN", "name": "Stevanato Group SpA", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 82.584, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.621, "architecture_energy": 66.817, "architecture_maturity": 21.215, "architecture_confidence": 76.983, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.25, "rotation_up": 69.48, "upward_expansion": 92.42, "deceleration": 40.95, "rotation_down": 16.0, "downward_expansion": 14.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.848, 19.310073, 18.541651, 17.744362 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 20.27, "trend_reference": 17.030918, "distance_from_trend": 0.190188, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.625218, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.104097, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.645272, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.312431, "excess_performance": 0.186806, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.190188, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052883, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.104097, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.126516, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086453, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.151071, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.312431, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.979802, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2916865, "relative_activity": 1.325087, "balance": 1.979802, "dry_up": 0.823465, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08021, "annualized_volatility": 0.325751, "from_high_reference": -0.273476, "from_low_reference": 0.578176 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.030918, "fair_value_reference": 22.625218, "structural_low": 12.843943, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.033648, "positive_rate": 0.705882, "directional_follow_through": 0.705882, "median_excess_return": 0.013094, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.167993, "worst_return": -0.168228, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.002995, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004661, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.37449, "worst_return": -0.196791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.048439, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.117329, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.681045, "worst_return": -0.163074, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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58.095153, "activity_lines": [ 18.962, 18.521876, 17.709014, 17.192073 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.68, "volume": 1408759, "typical_volume": 2181180.05, "trend": 17.076625, "fair_value": 22.78009, "relative_strength": -8.729979, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.12641, "energy": 67.434811, "activity_lines": [ 19.312667, 18.771353, 17.983962, 17.357999 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.85, "volume": 1771023, "typical_volume": 2160948.15, "trend": 17.054743, "fair_value": 22.698577, "relative_strength": -8.083655, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.406959, "energy": 68.288736, "activity_lines": [ 19.577333, 19.019844, 18.254505, 17.536926 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.27, "volume": 2916865, "typical_volume": 2201262.8, "trend": 17.030918, "fair_value": 22.625218, "relative_strength": -8.645272, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.621461, "energy": 66.816562, "activity_lines": [ 19.848, 19.310073, 18.541651, 17.744362 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }