{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e71121cd-575c-48d9-8734-28aa5b11c107", "symbol": "DB50", "name": "Xtrackers - MSCI Emerging Markets Swap UCITS ETF", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 61.698, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.177, "architecture_energy": 24.425, "architecture_maturity": 65.326, "architecture_confidence": 76.245, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.49, "rotation_up": 21.35, "upward_expansion": 54.79, "deceleration": 91.15, "rotation_down": 35.16, "downward_expansion": 18.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 70.869332, 71.943817, 71.711237, 70.035978 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 71.519997, "trend_reference": 67.850666, "distance_from_trend": 0.05408, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 52.261795, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.368495, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.963026, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.130751, "excess_performance": -0.043496, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05408, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076476, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.368495, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080276, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.06963, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132495, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.130751, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042151, "annualized_volatility": 0.232742, "from_high_reference": -0.073815, "from_low_reference": 0.368804 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 67.850666, "fair_value_reference": 52.261795, "structural_low": 59.459999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023978, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083906, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03451, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.109813, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037624, "active": 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"fair_value": 51.730321, "relative_strength": -5.444098, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.180237, "energy": 35.424071, "activity_lines": [ 72.683999, 73.099999, 71.272142, 69.332322 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 70.790001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.7, "trend": 67.163333, "fair_value": 51.900224, "relative_strength": -5.260533, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.201048, "energy": 24.310154, "activity_lines": [ 71.743332, 72.714363, 71.460619, 69.594946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 69.989998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.7, "trend": 67.510666, "fair_value": 52.072756, "relative_strength": -6.254031, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.313999, "energy": 24.036411, "activity_lines": [ 70.943332, 72.177272, 71.531333, 69.777311 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 71.519997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.7, "trend": 67.850666, "fair_value": 52.261795, "relative_strength": -6.963026, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.176833, "energy": 24.42532, "activity_lines": [ 70.869332, 71.943817, 71.711237, 70.035978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }