{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e716d156-f11a-4a09-b903-f35a2dedfcda", "symbol": "SDP", "name": "PROSHARES ULTRASHORT UTILITIES", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 32.76, "architecture_energy": 21.838, "architecture_maturity": 31.251, "architecture_confidence": 45.36, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.02, "rotation_up": 49.12, "upward_expansion": 41.04, "deceleration": 37.24, "rotation_down": 26.77, "downward_expansion": 17.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.213433, 21.896298, 21.864393, 21.749155 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 23.3029, "trend_reference": 21.867487, "distance_from_trend": 0.065641, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 32.022188, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.272289, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.764614, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.033089, "excess_performance": -0.158713, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065641, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029641, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.272289, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067946, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087646, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083969, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033089, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.846502, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33660, "relative_activity": 0.966973, "balance": 0.846502, "dry_up": 0.874908, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06296, "annualized_volatility": 0.3809, "from_high_reference": -0.129765, "from_low_reference": 0.187592 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.867487, "fair_value_reference": 32.022188, "structural_low": 19.621968, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.024607, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.028671, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.110795, "worst_return": -0.151297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.054079, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.019748, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.164521, "worst_return": -0.220603, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.126516, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.189357, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.179349, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 20.67, "volume": 46698, "typical_volume": 42330.3, "trend": 21.97884, "fair_value": 32.312267, "relative_strength": -16.193921, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.714667, "energy": 33.77785, "activity_lines": [ 21.178333, 21.507887, 21.621409, 21.631337 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.4219, "volume": 34433, "typical_volume": 36146.8, "trend": 21.919791, "fair_value": 32.161983, "relative_strength": -9.572202, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.665185, "energy": 8.854826, "activity_lines": [ 21.60418, 21.628701, 21.705546, 21.659922 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.3029, "volume": 33660, "typical_volume": 34809.65, "trend": 21.867487, "fair_value": 32.022188, "relative_strength": -8.764614, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.760271, "energy": 21.837797, "activity_lines": [ 22.213433, 21.896298, 21.864393, 21.749155 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }