{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e71a4d9c-0f3a-42ca-9d72-54cbe69e7725", "symbol": "EFI", "name": "Eurasia Fonciere Investissements Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.085, "architecture_energy": 81.049, "architecture_maturity": 53.711, "architecture_confidence": 92.879, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.24, "rotation_up": 29.42, "upward_expansion": 21.66, "deceleration": 37.13, "rotation_down": 43.72, "downward_expansion": 75.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.133, 0.133, 0.137857, 0.139563 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.133, "trend_reference": 0.146433, "distance_from_trend": -0.091737, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.232788, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.428666, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.637863, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.284946, "excess_performance": -0.338258, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.091737, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111987, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.428666, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077155, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.246379, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130781, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.284946, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 115, "relative_activity": 3.721683, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 1.334951, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016194, "annualized_volatility": 0.763768, "from_high_reference": -0.366667, "from_low_reference": 0.099174 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.146433, "fair_value_reference": 0.232788, "structural_low": 0.121, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.21875, "directional_follow_through": 0.1875, "median_excess_return": -0.002446, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.907692, "worst_return": -0.349462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.014925, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017078, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.207692, "worst_return": -0.349462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.03125, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.080255, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.265193, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.07, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.114286, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.341373, "energy": 86.365573, "activity_lines": [ 0.133, 0.138091, 0.140462, 0.145606 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.133, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 30.25, "trend": 0.1535, "fair_value": 0.23784, "relative_strength": -23.811795, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.434471, "energy": 64.975923, "activity_lines": [ 0.133, 0.136055, 0.139805, 0.14417 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.133, "volume": 50, "typical_volume": 26.8, "trend": 0.151733, "fair_value": 0.236756, "relative_strength": -23.240349, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.594216, "energy": 87.455025, "activity_lines": [ 0.133, 0.134527, 0.1394, 0.142847 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.133, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 26.25, "trend": 0.149967, "fair_value": 0.235314, "relative_strength": -22.969001, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.030124, "energy": 86.317375, "activity_lines": [ 0.133, 0.133509, 0.138943, 0.141639 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.133, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 25.15, "trend": 0.1482, "fair_value": 0.233872, "relative_strength": -23.512412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.811765, "energy": 83.160344, "activity_lines": [ 0.133, 0.133, 0.138429, 0.140544 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.133, "volume": 115, "typical_volume": 30.9, "trend": 0.146433, "fair_value": 0.232788, "relative_strength": -24.637863, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.085066, "energy": 81.048509, "activity_lines": [ 0.133, 0.133, 0.137857, 0.139563 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }