{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e71c9620-aff5-402b-80ff-2b2c605578e6", "symbol": "BKV", "name": "China Shenshan Orchard Holdings Co. Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.982, "architecture_energy": 73.983, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 72.298, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.89, "rotation_up": 68.54, "upward_expansion": 80.99, "deceleration": 54.64, "rotation_down": 16.35, "downward_expansion": 21.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.056467, 0.051309, 0.049062, 0.0488 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.088, "trend_reference": 0.0476, "distance_from_trend": 0.848739, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.077288, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.138592, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 57.452067, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.795918, "excess_performance": 0.641083, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.848739, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016529, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.138592, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.547772, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.574521, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.68361, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.795918, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.276762, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6600, "relative_activity": 1.301775, "balance": 0.276762, "dry_up": 0.374753, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06993, "annualized_volatility": 1.187896, "from_high_reference": -0.011236, "from_low_reference": 2.384615 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0476, "fair_value_reference": 0.077288, "structural_low": 0.035, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.019231, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.266667, "median_excess_return": -0.039088, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.484615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.06, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.10927, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.104478, "worst_return": -0.561538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.268292, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.328922, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.149254, "worst_return": -0.305556, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.087393, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.208544, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.194444, "worst_return": -0.369231, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051282, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.261261, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.487805, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.328358, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.388889, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076923, "active": 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -56.986789, "energy": 46.649202, "activity_lines": [ 0.044667, 0.045055, 0.046562, 0.046929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.04, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4740.0, "trend": 0.046333, "fair_value": 0.077865, "relative_strength": -28.536026, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -59.783403, "energy": 78.48898, "activity_lines": [ 0.0428, 0.044055, 0.045824, 0.04651 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.04, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4740.0, "trend": 0.046167, "fair_value": 0.077481, "relative_strength": -27.692991, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.836517, "energy": 92.035813, "activity_lines": [ 0.0414, 0.043236, 0.045133, 0.046101 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.088, "volume": 6600, "typical_volume": 5070.0, "trend": 0.0476, "fair_value": 0.077288, "relative_strength": 57.452067, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.9822, "energy": 73.983095, "activity_lines": [ 0.056467, 0.051309, 0.049062, 0.0488 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }