{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e71f5716-d0f1-43a9-aa1a-85e5ef75d031", "symbol": "XMBD", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 84.384, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.04, "architecture_energy": 22.169, "architecture_maturity": 22.652, "architecture_confidence": 58.552, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.03, "rotation_up": 35.63, "upward_expansion": 20.35, "deceleration": 42.14, "rotation_down": 22.3, "downward_expansion": 54.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.550999, 65.801909, 66.422405, 67.106592 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 65.794998, "trend_reference": 67.54, "distance_from_trend": -0.025837, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 51.963509, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.266177, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.267935, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.036535, "excess_performance": -0.087771, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025837, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035083, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.266177, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157139, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.022679, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.197302, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.036535, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.448482, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15880, "relative_activity": 1.155653, "balance": 0.448482, "dry_up": 0.814979, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035883, "annualized_volatility": 0.241769, "from_high_reference": -0.147181, "from_low_reference": 0.356039 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 67.54, "fair_value_reference": 51.963509, "structural_low": 62.18, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.00269, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.010288, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.137545, "worst_return": -0.101366, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.047963, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.002948, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.194214, "worst_return": -0.160467, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.02496, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.065579, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.21907, "worst_return": -0.109078, "sufficient": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.059517, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047704, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.010687, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020582, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.244739, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 66.095001, "volume": 11349, "typical_volume": 15500.6, "trend": 66.484, "fair_value": 51.551394, "relative_strength": 3.074762, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.187037, "energy": 27.760009, "activity_lines": [ 64.773668, 64.761546, 66.854263, 67.209775 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 65.480003, "volume": 6992, "typical_volume": 15101.25, "trend": 66.756501, "fair_value": 51.644663, "relative_strength": 0.860288, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.368078, "energy": 17.863335, "activity_lines": [ 65.128002, 64.759001, 66.632073, 67.145001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 66.945, "volume": 16449, "typical_volume": 15277.7, "trend": 67.061501, "fair_value": 51.744118, "relative_strength": 1.489374, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.400439, "energy": 14.157216, "activity_lines": [ 65.897335, 65.141274, 66.576239, 67.157162 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 67.849998, "volume": 5474, "typical_volume": 14065.75, "trend": 67.367334, "fair_value": 51.856233, "relative_strength": 1.284191, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.763667, "energy": 22.536327, "activity_lines": [ 66.687334, 65.669273, 66.602977, 67.208033 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.794998, "volume": 15880, "typical_volume": 13741.15, "trend": 67.54, "fair_value": 51.963509, "relative_strength": -2.267935, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.039612, "energy": 22.169311, "activity_lines": [ 66.550999, 65.801909, 66.422405, 67.106592 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }