{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7249dec-9d93-4cd0-8965-3ec3821d8148", "symbol": "INDG", "name": "Amundi STOXX Europe 600 Industrials UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 77.391, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.291, "architecture_energy": 49.042, "architecture_maturity": 21.261, "architecture_confidence": 76.566, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.11, "rotation_up": 53.67, "upward_expansion": 78.18, "deceleration": 56.34, "rotation_down": 20.5, "downward_expansion": 7.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 153.692, 152.764728, 150.802667, 149.116732 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 157.800003, "trend_reference": 147.805334, "distance_from_trend": 0.06762, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 130.563784, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.208605, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.662805, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.064777, "excess_performance": -0.106114, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06762, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031872, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.208605, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049218, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056628, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004478, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.064777, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.625118, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 87, "relative_activity": 0.033113, "balance": 1.625118, "dry_up": 0.10381, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030925, "annualized_volatility": 0.220769, "from_high_reference": -0.014489, "from_low_reference": 0.209195 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 147.805334, "fair_value_reference": 130.563784, "structural_low": 130.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.025605, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.001884, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.049849, "worst_return": -0.132758, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.001293, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.004239, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.001293, "worst_return": 0.001293, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.127424, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.036656, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.127424, "worst_return": 0.127424, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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146.978667, "fair_value": 130.098165, "relative_strength": -7.029703, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.200545, "energy": 32.823317, "activity_lines": [ 150.931999, 150.894545, 149.097524, 147.992388 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 154.080002, "volume": 63, "typical_volume": 4024.3, "trend": 147.474001, "fair_value": 130.316182, "relative_strength": -5.333842, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.737955, "energy": 31.681511, "activity_lines": [ 151.829333, 151.549091, 149.804477, 148.450538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 157.800003, "volume": 87, "typical_volume": 2627.4, "trend": 147.805334, "fair_value": 130.563784, "relative_strength": -5.662805, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.29076, "energy": 49.042084, "activity_lines": [ 153.692, 152.764728, 150.802667, 149.116732 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }