{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e725883b-aec6-4a38-bbc6-4b5e0947f898", "symbol": "S08", "name": "Singapore Post Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.419, "architecture_energy": 10.672, "architecture_maturity": 22.918, "architecture_confidence": 74.922, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.34, "rotation_up": 27.22, "upward_expansion": 27.02, "deceleration": 44.7, "rotation_down": 26.62, "downward_expansion": 46.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.340809, 0.339661, 0.338695, 0.342872 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.335, "trend_reference": 0.353065, "distance_from_trend": -0.051167, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.408805, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.180538, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.344415, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.151899, "excess_performance": -0.306734, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.051167, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065007, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.180538, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099201, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.273444, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074569, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.151899, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.201049, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12117300, "relative_activity": 0.427296, "balance": 0.201049, "dry_up": 0.809912, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050319, "annualized_volatility": 0.296567, "from_high_reference": -0.348258, "from_low_reference": 0.080645 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.353065, "fair_value_reference": 0.408805, "structural_low": 0.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.015504, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.006878, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.126436, "worst_return": -0.098712, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.055207, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.055986, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.227273, "worst_return": -0.105264, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.09748, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.10588, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.257382, "worst_return": -0.198921, "sufficient": 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037385, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.008928, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.117117, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061539, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.09, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.776856, "energy": 18.036271, "activity_lines": [ 0.345324, 0.337046, 0.339513, 0.346512 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.340432, "volume": 25694000, "typical_volume": 29820560.0, "trend": 0.357232, "fair_value": 0.409833, "relative_strength": -26.776173, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.195394, "energy": 19.877019, "activity_lines": [ 0.345366, 0.338369, 0.339404, 0.345279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.34, "volume": 36578499, "typical_volume": 29884019.95, "trend": 0.355065, "fair_value": 0.409375, "relative_strength": -26.395048, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.420532, "energy": 14.189212, "activity_lines": [ 0.344235, 0.339515, 0.339276, 0.344167 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.335, "volume": 12117300, "typical_volume": 28358104.95, "trend": 0.353065, "fair_value": 0.408805, "relative_strength": -27.344415, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.41913, "energy": 10.672358, "activity_lines": [ 0.340809, 0.339661, 0.338695, 0.342872 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }