{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e729dd11-5af9-4a87-8cdb-e9bc2ca11337", "symbol": "BBUS", "name": "JPMorgan ETFs (Ireland) ICAV - BetaBuilders US Equity UCITS ETF - USD (acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.992, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.553, "architecture_energy": 70.76, "architecture_maturity": 90.502, "architecture_confidence": 65.194, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.17, "rotation_up": 55.35, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.49, "rotation_down": 29.76, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 62.454666, 62.282909, 61.240524, 59.834516 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 63.669998, "trend_reference": 58.211, "distance_from_trend": 0.093779, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.446282, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.28766, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.330713, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.151356, "excess_performance": -0.019536, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093779, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040765, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.28766, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045645, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033307, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001507, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.151356, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.218123, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2101, "relative_activity": 2.046262, "balance": 3.218123, "dry_up": 0.613587, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014437, "annualized_volatility": 0.114451, "from_high_reference": -0.002507, "from_low_reference": 0.222308 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.211, "fair_value_reference": 49.446282, "structural_low": 52.689999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.015382, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.001042, "regime_survival": 0.825, "best_return": 0.102973, "worst_return": -0.101858, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.031343, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": 0.000281, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.144003, "worst_return": -0.165107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.072699, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.021842, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.181159, "worst_return": -0.1552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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60.818667, 59.464182, 57.566428, 56.88744 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 61.040001, "volume": 971, "typical_volume": 1267.75, "trend": 56.366666, "fair_value": 48.134552, "relative_strength": -4.10388, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.591952, "energy": 87.853069, "activity_lines": [ 61.08, 59.983091, 57.997, 57.20157 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 62.080002, "volume": 4, "typical_volume": 1256.65, "trend": 56.631666, "fair_value": 48.29734, "relative_strength": -4.842522, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.636799, "energy": 91.393043, "activity_lines": [ 61.537334, 60.559273, 58.499952, 57.570172 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 61.369999, "volume": 155, "typical_volume": 1260.0, "trend": 56.821333, "fair_value": 48.455577, "relative_strength": -2.95752, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", 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-2.719354, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.517842, "energy": 66.946077, "activity_lines": [ 62.302, 61.926, 60.247905, 58.937118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 62.07, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1112.95, "trend": 57.728333, "fair_value": 49.115321, "relative_strength": -2.49831, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.484496, "energy": 66.87807, "activity_lines": [ 62.256, 62.037273, 60.582714, 59.231871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61.330002, "volume": 170, "typical_volume": 921.85, "trend": 57.930667, "fair_value": 49.273302, "relative_strength": -4.205559, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.833333, "energy": 63.306736, "activity_lines": [ 61.964001, 61.954182, 60.815476, 59.464237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.669998, "volume": 2101, "typical_volume": 1026.75, "trend": 58.211, "fair_value": 49.446282, "relative_strength": -3.330713, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.552514, "energy": 70.759858, "activity_lines": [ 62.454666, 62.282909, 61.240524, 59.834516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }