{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e72b3856-9774-40ea-b00d-5a244bc601bc",
    "symbol": "YORW",
    "name": "The York Water Company",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing",
    "transition": "stage_1_building",
    "transition_label": "Base still building",
    "confidence": 59.16,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 27.872,
    "architecture_energy": 38.459,
    "architecture_maturity": 5.706,
    "architecture_confidence": 55.792,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 34.37,
        "rotation_up": 62.1,
        "upward_expansion": 50.98,
        "deceleration": 18.39,
        "rotation_down": 16.89,
        "downward_expansion": 21.31
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        31.284667,
        31.004024,
        30.50485,
        30.614414
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 31.7,
    "trend_reference": 31.03805,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.021327,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 33.130008,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.043164,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -11.168057,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.003452,
    "excess_performance": -0.184001,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.021327,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.014476,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.043164,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.088762,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.111681,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.108433,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.003452,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.982421,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 651642,
      "relative_activity": 0.8685,
      "balance": 0.982421,
      "dry_up": 0.86062,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.03951,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.209443,
      "from_high_reference": -0.064758,
      "from_low_reference": 0.121727
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 31.03805,
      "fair_value_reference": 33.130008,
      "structural_low": 28.26,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.043186,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.113416,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": -0.025459,
        "worst_return": -0.143814,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.025213,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.039131,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.014069,
        "worst_return": -0.065344,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.054798,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.157296,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.028011,
        "worst_return": -0.081989,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.088533,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.227454,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.055517,
        "worst_return": -0.12155,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-30",
        "end": "2024-10-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.082862,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-11-01",
        "end": "2024-11-22",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.02551,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.019787,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.034071,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.043186,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.030404,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.050148,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-08-08",
        "end": "2025-10-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.013719,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-10-24",
        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.034499,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-12",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.095206,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-05-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.042846,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-05-08",
        "end": "2026-07-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.068661,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-07-10",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.01732,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.023571,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 39.05145,
        "volume": 199573,
        "typical_volume": 193424.65,
        "trend": 40.259953,
        "fair_value": 40.781475,
        "relative_strength": -16.836896,
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      },
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      },
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        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -35.947334,
        "energy": 27.194487,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "close": 29.55,
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        "typical_volume": 583006.35,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "modifier": "Structural failure",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 611027.9,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 650428.85,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 661624.1,
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        "fair_value": 33.600386,
        "relative_strength": -17.192677,
        "stage": 4,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 680035.25,
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        "relative_strength": -19.358114,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -35.235683,
        "energy": 19.400668,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 31.42,
        "volume": 448623,
        "typical_volume": 730057.5,
        "trend": 31.206091,
        "fair_value": 33.37945,
        "relative_strength": -12.343618,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -12.584205,
        "energy": 11.779641,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 30.6,
        "volume": 1663427,
        "typical_volume": 794655.75,
        "trend": 31.125657,
        "fair_value": 33.32354,
        "relative_strength": -15.69194,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -12.614547,
        "energy": 13.401498,
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          30.576086,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 31.45,
        "volume": 751363,
        "typical_volume": 813105.3,
        "trend": 31.090318,
        "fair_value": 33.27003,
        "relative_strength": -9.262739,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": 5.591878,
        "energy": 20.81356,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.952513,
          30.490604,
          30.227183,
          30.575472
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 31.13,
        "volume": 572239,
        "typical_volume": 819337.1,
        "trend": 31.061734,
        "fair_value": 33.223496,
        "relative_strength": -8.462689,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 17.263805,
        "energy": 26.237764,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.108191,
          30.67235,
          30.300945,
          30.578032
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 30.97,
        "volume": 607674,
        "typical_volume": 816605.75,
        "trend": 31.044346,
        "fair_value": 33.177073,
        "relative_strength": -9.114223,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 16.470201,
        "energy": 28.856111,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.089333,
          30.783828,
          30.366945,
          30.572114
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 31.7,
        "volume": 651642,
        "typical_volume": 750307.6,
        "trend": 31.03805,
        "fair_value": 33.130008,
        "relative_strength": -11.168057,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 27.871508,
        "energy": 38.459194,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.284667,
          31.004024,
          30.50485,
          30.614414
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}