{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e72d1e2c-f26f-499b-bfc2-d9bb0cdeba35", "symbol": "CLG", "name": "Close the Loop Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.68, "architecture_energy": 22.233, "architecture_maturity": 24.878, "architecture_confidence": 59.316, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.45, "rotation_up": 9.61, "upward_expansion": 15.34, "deceleration": 64.76, "rotation_down": 58.74, "downward_expansion": 62.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.027733, 0.0286, 0.028576, 0.028187 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.026, "trend_reference": 0.028617, "distance_from_trend": -0.091439, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.172465, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.849245, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.628197, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.212121, "excess_performance": -0.275827, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.091439, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09584, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.849245, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053963, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.276282, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.224488, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.212121, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.618226, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 488794, "relative_activity": 0.218682, "balance": 1.618226, "dry_up": 0.299451, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.180473, "annualized_volatility": 0.821309, "from_high_reference": -0.551724, "from_low_reference": 0.529412 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.028617, "fair_value_reference": 0.172465, "structural_low": 0.017, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.080645, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.080582, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.015152, "worst_return": -0.1875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.157895, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.195843, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.045455, "worst_return": -0.255319, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.272727, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.327468, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.131579, "worst_return": -0.510638, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.368421, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.470089, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.368421, "worst_return": -0.368421, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.121622, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015873, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward 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"close": 0.032, "volume": 1048329, "typical_volume": 2734751.85, "trend": 0.029817, "fair_value": 0.183554, "relative_strength": -10.408595, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.253992, "energy": 5.50399, "activity_lines": [ 0.0302, 0.030618, 0.028614, 0.028688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.027, "volume": 825260, "typical_volume": 2324301.4, "trend": 0.02955, "fair_value": 0.180715, "relative_strength": -23.410044, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.699667, "energy": 9.345864, "activity_lines": [ 0.029067, 0.030155, 0.028583, 0.028506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.028, "volume": 996352, "typical_volume": 2319582.3, "trend": 0.029383, "fair_value": 0.177881, "relative_strength": -19.625449, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.28329, "energy": 8.16855, "activity_lines": [ 0.0286, 0.029745, 0.028629, 0.028406 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.029, "volume": 366904, "typical_volume": 2254090.65, "trend": 0.029017, "fair_value": 0.175279, "relative_strength": -17.730693, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.842333, "energy": 4.550024, "activity_lines": [ 0.028667, 0.029427, 0.02875, 0.028382 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.026, "volume": 488794, "typical_volume": 2235181.45, "trend": 0.028617, "fair_value": 0.172465, "relative_strength": -27.628197, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.679747, "energy": 22.233006, "activity_lines": [ 0.027733, 0.0286, 0.028576, 0.028187 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }