{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e72ef4e1-6269-4a70-882a-f993d3c069c1", "symbol": "2509", "name": "Chainqui Construction Development Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 60.027, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.722, "architecture_energy": 20.717, "architecture_maturity": 53.365, "architecture_confidence": 89.342, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.93, "rotation_up": 24.49, "upward_expansion": 3.77, "deceleration": 50.89, "rotation_down": 44.54, "downward_expansion": 77.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.273333, 13.309091, 13.329762, 13.510645 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.7, "trend_reference": 13.825, "distance_from_trend": -0.009042, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.717308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.18049, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -33.320271, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.064846, "excess_performance": -0.506218, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009042, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040819, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.18049, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071939, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.333203, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084825, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.064846, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.414341, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 628372, "relative_activity": 0.614357, "balance": 2.414341, "dry_up": 0.52545, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065693, "annualized_volatility": 0.273032, "from_high_reference": -0.240997, "from_low_reference": 0.132231 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.825, "fair_value_reference": 16.717308, "structural_low": 12.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.007634, "positive_rate": 0.387097, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": -0.020631, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.315789, "worst_return": -0.148148, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.044103, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.062618, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.158621, "worst_return": -0.148649, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.010033, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.046653, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.248276, "worst_return": -0.205405, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"gate": "down", "direction": -49.17671, "energy": 28.575971, "activity_lines": [ 13.233333, 13.360909, 13.420238, 13.657527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.0, "volume": 644971, "typical_volume": 1038761.0, "trend": 14.0, "fair_value": 16.740064, "relative_strength": -34.23168, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.249107, "energy": 33.818268, "activity_lines": [ 13.146667, 13.306364, 13.362619, 13.587312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.0, "volume": 468653, "typical_volume": 1014454.85, "trend": 13.888333, "fair_value": 16.725962, "relative_strength": -35.167334, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.899507, "energy": 34.812554, "activity_lines": [ 13.073333, 13.25, 13.309048, 13.522796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 13.7, "volume": 628372, "typical_volume": 1022812.2, "trend": 13.825, "fair_value": 16.717308, "relative_strength": -33.320271, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.722222, "energy": 20.717001, "activity_lines": [ 13.273333, 13.309091, 13.329762, 13.510645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }