{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e72f7d35-8cb3-4378-8b6b-23aa37bbd391", "symbol": "ASB", "name": "Associated Banc-Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.133, "architecture_energy": 56.048, "architecture_maturity": 52.493, "architecture_confidence": 80.94, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 58.25, "upward_expansion": 82.22, "deceleration": 63.59, "rotation_down": 22.71, "downward_expansion": 8.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.042, 30.785818, 29.711585, 28.830297 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 31.28, "trend_reference": 27.902252, "distance_from_trend": 0.121056, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.446997, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.393505, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.318446, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.084135, "excess_performance": -0.04149, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.121056, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060748, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.393505, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060656, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.043184, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043995, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.084135, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.129901, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6998585, "relative_activity": 0.702952, "balance": 1.129901, "dry_up": 0.937092, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043386, "annualized_volatility": 0.258068, "from_high_reference": -0.022347, "from_low_reference": 0.365522 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.902252, "fair_value_reference": 22.446997, "structural_low": 23.661148, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.016911, "positive_rate": 0.37931, "directional_follow_through": 0.37931, "median_excess_return": -0.038049, "regime_survival": 0.62069, "best_return": 0.164114, "worst_return": -0.11609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.002264, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.024797, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.106042, "worst_return": -0.208103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.051511, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.036475, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.287399, "worst_return": -0.190734, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 30.502667, 29.615734, 28.506784, 27.896578 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.34, "volume": 10430994, "typical_volume": 10653238.75, "trend": 27.375778, "fair_value": 22.173032, "relative_strength": 9.260402, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.429064, "energy": 85.495211, "activity_lines": [ 30.86, 30.046395, 28.874104, 28.163895 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.81, "volume": 10978690, "typical_volume": 10436815.2, "trend": 27.539594, "fair_value": 22.261208, "relative_strength": 7.91229, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.463628, "energy": 69.506161, "activity_lines": [ 30.922, 30.325423, 29.165256, 28.385457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.88, "volume": 8910465, "typical_volume": 10277352.1, "trend": 27.72539, "fair_value": 22.352223, "relative_strength": 6.796766, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.174629, "energy": 55.703465, "activity_lines": [ 30.9, 30.547576, 29.435121, 28.600967 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.28, "volume": 6998585, "typical_volume": 9955993.1, "trend": 27.902252, "fair_value": 22.446997, "relative_strength": 4.318446, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.132756, "energy": 56.047888, "activity_lines": [ 31.042, 30.785818, 29.711585, 28.830297 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }