{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e732b415-b4c6-4ecf-ac29-fee8ab7675b4",
    "symbol": "STN",
    "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI Europe Energy UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 55.855,
    "architecture_energy": 47.674,
    "architecture_maturity": 35.807,
    "architecture_confidence": 65.97,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.",
        "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 28.88,
        "rotation_up": 69.6,
        "upward_expansion": 75.57,
        "deceleration": 64.07,
        "rotation_down": 10.88,
        "downward_expansion": 6.9
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        288.443329,
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        279.146427,
        277.421503
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 285.649994,
    "trend_reference": 269.183331,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.061173,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 212.53673,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.344003,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 9.614012,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.237652,
    "excess_performance": 0.18434,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.061173,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.084731,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.344003,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.005785,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.09614,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.126059,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.237652,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.114248,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 44324,
      "relative_activity": 2.315918,
      "balance": 1.114248,
      "dry_up": 1.225283,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.046062,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.30071,
      "from_high_reference": -0.070301,
      "from_low_reference": 0.441076
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 269.183331,
      "fair_value_reference": 212.53673,
      "structural_low": 229.25,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 16,
        "median_return": -0.002802,
        "positive_rate": 0.4375,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4375,
        "median_excess_return": -0.007182,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.126784,
        "worst_return": -0.138536,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.01255,
        "positive_rate": 0.375,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.375,
        "median_excess_return": 0.00726,
        "regime_survival": 0.125,
        "best_return": 0.413317,
        "worst_return": -0.055464,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.023824,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.012727,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
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        "worst_return": -0.110881,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.248155,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.219546,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
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        "worst_return": -0.053339,
        "sufficient": false
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    ],
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.059929,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-09-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.052921,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.02004,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.017507,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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      {
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "label": "Rotation Up",
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "relative_strength": 27.777627,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "fair_value": 209.246089,
        "relative_strength": 3.181235,
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        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 22184.35,
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        "fair_value": 209.822371,
        "relative_strength": 8.955135,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 26157,
        "typical_volume": 22981.2,
        "trend": 261.199998,
        "fair_value": 210.450769,
        "relative_strength": 14.527651,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
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        "direction": 13.362276,
        "energy": 24.948197,
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          266.923338,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 293.799988,
        "volume": 11048,
        "typical_volume": 21482.05,
        "trend": 263.984998,
        "fair_value": 211.17641,
        "relative_strength": 18.555796,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 51.545566,
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        "activity_lines": [
          276.939999,
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          274.042687
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 297.399994,
        "volume": 12273,
        "typical_volume": 21084.95,
        "trend": 266.693331,
        "fair_value": 211.905769,
        "relative_strength": 17.399122,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.760209,
        "energy": 45.977091,
        "activity_lines": [
          286.119997,
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          278.761903,
          276.198493
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 285.649994,
        "volume": 44324,
        "typical_volume": 19138.85,
        "trend": 269.183331,
        "fair_value": 212.53673,
        "relative_strength": 9.614012,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 55.855285,
        "energy": 47.674152,
        "activity_lines": [
          288.443329,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}