{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7358418-7f85-43b6-a5fc-49abf3337342", "symbol": "TXP", "name": "Touchstone Exploration Inc.", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.157, "architecture_energy": 25.889, "architecture_maturity": 66.158, "architecture_confidence": 83.538, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.29, "rotation_up": 26.94, "upward_expansion": 19.88, "deceleration": 46.12, "rotation_down": 33.61, "downward_expansion": 60.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.071833, 0.070773, 0.073393, 0.078967 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.0725, "trend_reference": 0.08525, "distance_from_trend": -0.14956, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.269766, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.731249, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.962611, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.20765, "excess_performance": -0.258886, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.14956, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028305, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.731249, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004169, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.299626, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018564, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.20765, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.301704, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1136744, "relative_activity": 0.5306, "balance": 0.301704, "dry_up": 0.597572, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126324, "annualized_volatility": 0.701299, "from_high_reference": -0.559619, "from_low_reference": 0.27193 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.08525, "fair_value_reference": 0.269766, "structural_low": 0.065, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.017857, "positive_rate": 0.465116, "directional_follow_through": 0.511628, "median_excess_return": -0.018891, "regime_survival": 0.837209, "best_return": 0.75, "worst_return": -0.47234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.011506, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014627, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.632653, "worst_return": -0.484211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.081633, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.146126, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.081871, "worst_return": -0.65814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-64.71137, "energy": 59.861188, "activity_lines": [ 0.0685, 0.068864, 0.076083, 0.081462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0775, "volume": 1728182, "typical_volume": 2521677.65, "trend": 0.08635, "fair_value": 0.279397, "relative_strength": -26.341191, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.491316, "energy": 33.39595, "activity_lines": [ 0.0715, 0.070318, 0.075393, 0.080909 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.07, "volume": 1863427, "typical_volume": 2287091.8, "trend": 0.08625, "fair_value": 0.274462, "relative_strength": -33.206053, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.217604, "energy": 31.977218, "activity_lines": [ 0.071333, 0.070318, 0.074155, 0.079854 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0725, "volume": 1136744, "typical_volume": 2142376.65, "trend": 0.08525, "fair_value": 0.269766, "relative_strength": -29.962611, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.157343, "energy": 25.888692, "activity_lines": [ 0.071833, 0.070773, 0.073393, 0.078967 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }