{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e73b7cda-a6d4-49c9-9d0e-1f0b4a56adbb", "symbol": "PEC", "name": "Perpetual Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 14.806, "architecture_energy": 27.462, "architecture_maturity": 62.582, "architecture_confidence": 86.507, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.98, "rotation_up": 18.28, "upward_expansion": 50.31, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 49.13, "downward_expansion": 29.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.014133, 0.015945, 0.015593, 0.01462 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.014, "trend_reference": 0.0134, "distance_from_trend": 0.044776, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.013696, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.022233, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.939066, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.4, "excess_performance": 0.336294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044776, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.227481, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.022233, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140877, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.019391, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086717, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.4, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.857592, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2516272, "relative_activity": 0.406894, "balance": 1.857592, "dry_up": 1.194142, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.203297, "annualized_volatility": 1.010868, "from_high_reference": -0.44, "from_low_reference": 0.75 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0134, "fair_value_reference": 0.013696, "structural_low": 0.009, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.0625, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.088699, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.3125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.15, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.198177, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.4375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.191964, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.193263, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.4, "worst_return": -0.486957, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.167391, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.189804, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.3, "worst_return": -0.634783, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.35, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.24, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.3125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"gate": "up", "direction": 58.367555, "energy": 44.869882, "activity_lines": [ 0.018133, 0.017991, 0.015845, 0.014598 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.014, "volume": 14799696, "typical_volume": 6000653.65, "trend": 0.01325, "fair_value": 0.013862, "relative_strength": 3.477058, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.821621, "energy": 24.397306, "activity_lines": [ 0.0166, 0.017418, 0.015836, 0.014657 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.012, "volume": 5332642, "typical_volume": 6221421.2, "trend": 0.013317, "fair_value": 0.013798, "relative_strength": -11.35825, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.136601, "energy": 18.16778, "activity_lines": [ 0.014867, 0.016491, 0.015621, 0.014576 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.014, "volume": 2516272, "typical_volume": 6184090.7, "trend": 0.0134, "fair_value": 0.013696, "relative_strength": 1.939066, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.805857, "energy": 27.461787, "activity_lines": [ 0.014133, 0.015945, 0.015593, 0.01462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }