{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e73deb1b-ef64-475e-bce5-0828ca5b2a03", "symbol": "300716", "name": "Guangdong Quanwei Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.814, "architecture_energy": 21.241, "architecture_maturity": 69.81, "architecture_confidence": 94.14, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.56, "rotation_up": 21.88, "upward_expansion": 53.98, "deceleration": 91.09, "rotation_down": 35.84, "downward_expansion": 19.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.467334, 18.773091, 17.899762, 16.963893 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 18.280001, "trend_reference": 15.638667, "distance_from_trend": 0.168898, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.246282, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.625426, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 28.210308, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.627783, "excess_performance": 0.620383, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.168898, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.191336, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.625426, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.215683, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.282103, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136234, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.627783, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.236631, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12091495, "relative_activity": 0.552427, "balance": 1.236631, "dry_up": 0.791486, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.203627, "annualized_volatility": 0.808513, "from_high_reference": -0.378231, "from_low_reference": 1.600285 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.638667, "fair_value_reference": 11.246282, "structural_low": 11.38, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.033723, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.037407, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.345127, "worst_return": -0.197238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.033557, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.047046, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.257384, "worst_return": -0.148879, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.008011, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.027037, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.21519, "worst_return": -0.254709, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013453, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041035, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.068311, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.178796, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020772, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", 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"trend": 14.993333, "fair_value": 11.197436, "relative_strength": 37.739039, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.149732, "energy": 46.86816, "activity_lines": [ 20.241334, 19.608909, 17.735524, 16.591097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.69, "volume": 17039754, "typical_volume": 23197686.95, "trend": 15.18, "fair_value": 11.202115, "relative_strength": 17.141339, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.570176, "energy": 19.006929, "activity_lines": [ 18.434, 19.074364, 17.659429, 16.636043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.41, "volume": 12982015, "typical_volume": 22587647.6, "trend": 15.428333, "fair_value": 11.218462, "relative_strength": 30.246921, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.49895, "energy": 24.103292, "activity_lines": [ 17.589334, 18.864728, 17.744334, 16.779914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.280001, "volume": 12091495, "typical_volume": 21887962.35, "trend": 15.638667, "fair_value": 11.246282, "relative_strength": 28.210308, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.813885, "energy": 21.240781, "activity_lines": [ 17.467334, 18.773091, 17.899762, 16.963893 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }