{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7408393-aded-4e0a-b944-822cd2b525c4", "symbol": "IMPEXFERRO", "name": "Impex Ferro Tech Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 92.5, "architecture_energy": 87.989, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.845, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.65, "rotation_up": 74.49, "upward_expansion": 89.97, "deceleration": 49.87, "rotation_down": 13.05, "downward_expansion": 18.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.650667, 2.521273, 2.287429, 2.11772 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.17, "trend_reference": 1.945, "distance_from_trend": 0.62982, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.796667, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.133492, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 65.187361, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.780899, "excess_performance": 0.824608, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.62982, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119962, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.133492, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.549537, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.651874, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.734455, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.780899, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 49.896702, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 79425, "relative_activity": 0.86228, "balance": 49.896702, "dry_up": 2.276983, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074982, "annualized_volatility": 0.619145, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 1.438462 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.945, "fair_value_reference": 2.796667, "structural_low": 1.3, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.002177, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.304348, "worst_return": -0.335025, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.063406, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.001624, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.153846, "worst_return": -0.047619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.021419, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.114686, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 4.32, "worst_return": -0.37594, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.170149, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.229426, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.295238, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.172414, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.147959, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.092486, 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.308772, "energy": 86.568904, "activity_lines": [ 2.420667, 2.255273, 2.002429, 1.910473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.18, "volume": 24802, "typical_volume": 74235.5, "trend": 1.842, "fair_value": 2.809231, "relative_strength": 18.208376, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.782755, "energy": 60.398231, "activity_lines": [ 2.334, 2.270545, 2.034095, 1.933075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.28, "volume": 353462, "typical_volume": 87582.85, "trend": 1.857667, "fair_value": 2.805256, "relative_strength": 22.612376, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.0538, "energy": 44.846423, "activity_lines": [ 2.289333, 2.295455, 2.073286, 1.961333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.39, "volume": 280326, "typical_volume": 99261.15, "trend": 1.878667, "fair_value": 2.802949, "relative_strength": 31.052084, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.345431, "energy": 44.977147, "activity_lines": [ 2.306667, 2.329273, 2.12019, 1.995677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.5, "volume": 125723, "typical_volume": 93552.1, "trend": 1.899667, "fair_value": 2.7975, "relative_strength": 32.91649, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.748064, "energy": 50.355093, "activity_lines": [ 2.37, 2.371091, 2.173905, 2.035763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.17, "volume": 79425, "typical_volume": 92110.5, "trend": 1.945, "fair_value": 2.796667, "relative_strength": 65.187361, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.499772, "energy": 87.988936, "activity_lines": [ 2.650667, 2.521273, 2.287429, 2.11772 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }