{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7498f71-5fe2-4516-b4d0-2aa1ebdd3ec8", "symbol": "IMVP", "name": "INVESCO INDIA EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR INDIA ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.178, "architecture_energy": 30.789, "architecture_maturity": 83.092, "architecture_confidence": 61.513, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.63, "rotation_up": 25.67, "upward_expansion": 15.08, "deceleration": 63.12, "rotation_down": 39.13, "downward_expansion": 65.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.165867, 20.117671, 20.277156, 20.6191 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.5856, "trend_reference": 21.28156, "distance_from_trend": -0.032702, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.034068, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.106298, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.680375, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.139398, "excess_performance": -0.265023, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032702, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061817, "read": "Falling" 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19.447524, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.001441, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008503, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.072551, "worst_return": -0.141941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.029481, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.011602, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.087044, "worst_return": -0.105944, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.008059, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006721, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.129971, "worst_return": -0.132302, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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{ "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 20.12, "volume": 112746, "typical_volume": 197750.9, "trend": 21.841486, "fair_value": 23.023282, "relative_strength": -20.794442, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.033084, "energy": 41.307589, "activity_lines": [ 20.143693, 20.172066, 20.48408, 21.017789 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.86, "volume": 148299, "typical_volume": 198285.0, "trend": 21.692039, "fair_value": 23.024463, "relative_strength": -19.999457, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.345077, "energy": 46.68374, "activity_lines": [ 20.05337, 20.096909, 20.392027, 20.889951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.64, "volume": 902297, "typical_volume": 232058.1, "trend": 21.538706, "fair_value": 23.023549, "relative_strength": -19.867847, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.208404, "energy": 58.651891, "activity_lines": [ 19.891387, 20.00318, 20.295832, 20.757561 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.2, "volume": 348009, "typical_volume": 234511.55, "trend": 21.39304, "fair_value": 23.02733, "relative_strength": -17.917374, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.806385, "energy": 42.537703, "activity_lines": [ 19.96936, 20.024256, 20.265613, 20.671193 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.5856, "volume": 185405, "typical_volume": 237193.4, "trend": 21.28156, "fair_value": 23.034068, "relative_strength": -18.680375, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.177695, "energy": 30.788678, "activity_lines": [ 20.165867, 20.117671, 20.277156, 20.6191 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }