{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e74a860e-220a-4ea6-af6a-a0c8ae0b6003", "symbol": "ABNB", "name": "Airbnb, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 92.835, "architecture_energy": 78.977, "architecture_maturity": 50.0, "architecture_confidence": 72.962, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 78.71, "upward_expansion": 87.97, "deceleration": 50.79, "rotation_down": 10.85, "downward_expansion": 14.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 136.109332, 131.770909, 125.873143, 122.116645 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 150.979996, "trend_reference": 117.554, "distance_from_trend": 0.284346, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 121.496282, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.242672, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.756969, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.483687, "excess_performance": 0.30944, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.284346, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055204, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.242672, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.218538, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.08757, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.149376, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.483687, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.055118, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 146, "relative_activity": 1.773998, "balance": 2.055118, "dry_up": 1.564399, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047271, "annualized_volatility": 0.330264, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.567483 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 117.554, "fair_value_reference": 121.496282, "structural_low": 98.830002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.006676, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.037525, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.168645, "worst_return": -0.272337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.003849, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.084289, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.100787, "worst_return": -0.218806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.228773, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.289086, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.111014, "worst_return": -0.30212, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.212511, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006613, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.233434, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090046, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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"trend": 112.032667, "fair_value": 121.189487, "relative_strength": -16.287415, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.064026, "energy": 18.066197, "activity_lines": [ 114.954668, 116.404728, 114.733334, 113.690237 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 122.860001, "volume": 20, "typical_volume": 103.25, "trend": 112.84, "fair_value": 121.240256, "relative_strength": -12.649382, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.735802, "energy": 33.637602, "activity_lines": [ 117.624001, 117.537092, 115.701619, 114.388775 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 127.480003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 103.25, "trend": 113.712667, "fair_value": 121.304231, "relative_strength": -7.156512, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.252791, "energy": 66.634887, "activity_lines": [ 121.249335, 119.246183, 117.046382, 115.333291 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 131.320007, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 98.9, "trend": 114.562001, "fair_value": 121.381667, "relative_strength": -6.147621, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.685529, "energy": 82.070648, "activity_lines": [ 125.264004, 121.51673, 118.634382, 116.469248 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 130.119995, "volume": 154, "typical_volume": 84.85, "trend": 115.225334, "fair_value": 121.412179, "relative_strength": -5.35088, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.175944, "energy": 84.412398, "activity_lines": [ 127.846668, 123.370547, 119.966858, 117.47299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 127.660004, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 80.5, "trend": 115.598001, "fair_value": 121.373974, "relative_strength": -4.808153, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.317261, "energy": 83.555639, "activity_lines": [ 128.704002, 124.583274, 120.952572, 118.275227 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 125.099998, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 70.25, "trend": 115.915334, "fair_value": 121.288077, "relative_strength": -7.4422, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.981325, "energy": 75.093268, "activity_lines": [ 127.774667, 125.261456, 121.634953, 118.888259 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 131.5, "volume": 269, "typical_volume": 83.7, "trend": 116.524667, "fair_value": 121.301667, "relative_strength": -2.333958, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.160207, "energy": 56.985499, "activity_lines": [ 128.829333, 126.903274, 122.875905, 119.893721 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 150.979996, "volume": 146, "typical_volume": 82.3, "trend": 117.554, "fair_value": 121.496282, "relative_strength": 8.756969, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.835029, "energy": 78.977091, "activity_lines": [ 136.109332, 131.770909, 125.873143, 122.116645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }