{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e7592377-239a-41c8-ab1c-789aab27b8c2", "symbol": "IBI-F65", "name": "Psagot Mutual Funds Ltd. - I.B.I. SAL (4D) S&P 500", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.787, "architecture_energy": 63.032, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 59.843, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.75, "rotation_up": 27.97, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 44.34, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 226.413333, 223.990909, 5683.740476, 9579.358065 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 229.3, "trend_reference": 14060.92, "distance_from_trend": -0.983692, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18768.766667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.987783, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.829381, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989153, "excess_performance": -1.018054, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983692, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.337728, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.987783, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.0646, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988294, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.739955, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989153, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.120415, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 172579, "relative_activity": 1.834695, "balance": 1.120415, "dry_up": 0.776289, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.363011, "annualized_volatility": 6.344743, "from_high_reference": -0.989685, "from_low_reference": 0.075012 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14060.92, "fair_value_reference": 18768.766667, "structural_low": 213.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.020557, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": 0.000983, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.06948, "worst_return": -0.066763, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.006129, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.031923, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.066397, "worst_return": -0.097222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.050432, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.031921, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.114818, "worst_return": -0.037281, "sufficient": false }, { 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-65.993785, "energy": 78.892447, "activity_lines": [ 222.726667, 2507.556364, 9213.755238, 12533.616344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 224.2, "volume": 27134, "typical_volume": 91824.6, "trend": 15486.416667, "fair_value": 18974.759615, "relative_strength": -98.940306, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.634356, "energy": 67.554775, "activity_lines": [ 223.626667, 1360.714545, 7939.020476, 11502.493118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 225.8, "volume": 52894, "typical_volume": 86637.2, "trend": 14777.276667, "fair_value": 18872.425, "relative_strength": -98.875332, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.230606, "energy": 66.916846, "activity_lines": [ 224.72, 600.087273, 6762.370476, 10517.937204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 229.3, "volume": 172579, "typical_volume": 94064.15, "trend": 14060.92, "fair_value": 18768.766667, "relative_strength": -98.829381, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.787023, "energy": 63.032239, "activity_lines": [ 226.413333, 223.990909, 5683.740476, 9579.358065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }